Wind Advisory 4, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WWUS73 KABR 010052
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
652 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-010200-
/O.EXP.KABR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-090201T0100Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...MCLAUGHLIN...
HERREID...EUREKA...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...MOBRIDGE...
IPSWICH...WEBSTER...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON...
REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD...CLEAR LAKE
652 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009 /552 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2009/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ THIS
EVENING. 

THE WIND CONTINUES TO DECREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING...THEREFORE THE
WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM CST.

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1247 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND WILL BE CLOSE OR COULD GO INTO
THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY FOR A TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS. UPDATED FORECAST TO MAINLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY TODAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL
PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN TODAYS WEATHER FORECAST. THE CWA IS BEHIND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WHICH IS
KEEPING LOWS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT. THE THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
CERTAINLY HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE LOWS UP AS WELL. AS OF 08Z...KMBG
HAD A TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLIDE SE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SIX HOUR PRESSURE RISE OF
6 TO 7 MBS PUSH THROUGH ND AND INTO WESTERN SD. OVER THE CWA
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE RISE IS 4 TO 5 MBS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA WOULD BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR A WIND ADV...HOWEVER
WILL FORGO ONE FOR NOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE LAV/MAV/MET
ARE SUSTAINED AT 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS IN KMBG. BOTH
OF THESE ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADV CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE OFTEN TOO WARM MAV AND
THE TOO COOL MET THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY POSE AS A PROBLEM. TEMPS AT THE 850 MB LEVEL ARE SHOWN TO
DROP TO 10C BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DECENT LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE. THE LATEST
ADJMAV GUIDANCE IS SOME TEN DEGREES WARMER THEN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE NUDGED HIGHS TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ADJMET GUIDANCE...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ADJMAV. THE
COLD SURGE THAT WAS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE
OF A GLANCING BLOW ON MONDAY. HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED HIGHS ON
MONDAY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MID 20S CWA WIDE...AND THE
MET GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST UPPER TEENS. BELIEVE BOTH MODELS ARE
OVER DOING HIGHS IN THE EAST WHERE CAA WILL BE THE STRONGEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY FAIR AGREEMENT AT LEAST IN THIS
AREA. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH WELL DEVELOPED NORTHWEST H5
FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON TUESDAY VERY COLD H85 TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIDING SOUTH JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NEGATIVE
DOUBLE DIGIT C READINGS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE H5 UPPER LEVEL WESTERN RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO SLIDE EAST PUSHING BIG H5 HEIGHT RISES
INTO THE AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PUSHING DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AIR MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA IS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN BUT HAS TRAVELED ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO IS LEFT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE. THUS HAVE KEPT DRY PERIOD AND WARMED TEMPERATURES
AFTER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
UNLIMITED AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND PUSH
COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THIS REGION. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD MAKE
SURFACE WIND A CONCERN WITH SPEEDS OVER 30KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
136 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-011945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
136 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009 /1236 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH GUSTING OVER 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MOHR