Tornado Warning 17, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BASIC PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN
UNSETTLED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL GET PUSHED NORTH NORTHEAST TONIGHT BY A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE DAKOTAS WILL BE UNDER A GOOD AREA THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
TO SEE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH...HELPING TO KEEP
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS CURRENTLY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...SITUATION HAS
BECOME A PRIME SETUP FOR FUNNEL CLOUD AND WEAK TORNADOES. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS THE
STORMS TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN
COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE MODELS INDICATING
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...CANNOT PICK OUT A TIME WHEN THERE
WILL NOT BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH A SCHC TO CHC POP
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WHICH SHOULD
RELATE TO SURFACE TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WELL ENOUGH TO CURTAIL
POPS/WX MENTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THEY BOTH PROG AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO BE WORKING INTO MN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SO...CONTINUED THE POPS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN TERMINATED
THEM FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FORECASTED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
CWA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STILL APPEARS TO PAN OUT. SO...THE
FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE THROUGH THAT TIME. THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WAVES THAT LIFT UP ONTO THE PLAINS STATES OUT OF THE SWRN
CONUS...LOOK TO WORK UP INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
SUCH...HAVE POPS/WX MENTION IN FOR DAYS 5 AND 6.

925HPA AND 850HPA THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SHOULD SUFFICE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. LATEST LONG RANGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
KMBG...KABR AND KATY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT MVFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DROP HEAVY
RAINS AS THEY DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER LOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT VISBIES TO BRIEFLY DECREASE
INTO IFR FLT CAT IN THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

AT THE KPIR TERMINAL...GOOD VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DETERIORATE INTO PERIODS OF MVFR FLT CAT DUE TO CIGS/VISBIES BEING
REDUCED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS...BKN-OVC
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...THESE LOW CLOUDS SHIFT LIFT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE VFR FLT CAT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-170945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009 /334 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE BEST LOCATIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM EASTERN HAND COUNTY TO SOUTHERN CLARK AND DEUEL
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK...WITH
NONE OF THE DAYS IN WHICH THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST APPEARS
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
225 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             6 W BOWDLE              45.45N 99.78W
06/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       WALWORTH           SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
228 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             1 S SENECA              45.05N 99.51W
06/16/2009  E1.75 INCH       FAULK              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
307 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             12 SW WESSINGTON        44.33N 98.87W
06/16/2009  E0.75 INCH       HAND               SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             12 SSW WESSINGTON       44.29N 98.79W
06/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       HAND               SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STRATFORD               45.32N 98.30W
06/16/2009  E3.50 INCH       BROWN              SD   PUBLIC

            3.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 2 PM. STREET FLOODING IN TOWN.

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             8 SW WESSINGTON         44.37N 98.81W
06/16/2009  E1.75 INCH       HAND               SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TMK