Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
327 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BUT WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA IN ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO. CLOSELY WATCHING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
CU DEVELOPING ALONG IT. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
WILL LEAVE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND MAY BECOME BREEZY BY
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ACROSS THE EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ALL DAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SFC
HIGH. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANY CONVECTION CHANCES FARTHER
WEST OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER PATTERN WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNSETTLED
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UNSTABLE AIR IS
PUSHED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT AND MAY NEED TO
INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH 80S AND 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH
SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS COULD REACH 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THIS TIME...OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
PATTERN EARLY ON THAT THEN SLOWS UP AS TROFFING DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN MAY COME ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT
THAT IS NOT A GIVEN SINCE THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN/SPEED AT THAT TIME. FOR NOW LOW POPS
WILL SUFFICE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE NEAR TO
MAYBE EVEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL...DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WEST
TROFFING SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GFS IS PROBABLY A BIT
TOO AGGRESSIVE AND THUS A BIT TOO COLD. FAVORED HPC GUIDANCE
OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KATY/KPIR INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-250915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
401 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009 /301 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I90
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.  GENERALLY...THESE WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS SOUTH OF A FAITH...TO PIERRE...TO MITCHELL LINE THAT FORM
ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR/BE SEVERE NORTH OF THIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...NEITHER OF THESE DAYS APPEARS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
730 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             HECLA                   45.88N 98.15W
06/24/2009  E0.50 INCH       BROWN              SD   PUBLIC

0714 PM     HAIL             HECLA                   45.88N 98.15W
06/24/2009  E0.75 INCH       BROWN              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GROUND WHITE

0720 PM     HAIL             WESTPORT                45.65N 98.50W
06/24/2009  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

ATG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
740 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             5 ENE COLUMBIA          45.64N 98.22W
06/24/2009  E0.75 INCH       BROWN              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS 45-50 MPH

0730 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                45.61N 98.31W
06/24/2009  E0.88 INCH       BROWN              SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

            50 MPH WINDS

&&

ATG

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