Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN ACTIVE EVENING IN STORE FOR THE REGION. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A
WAVE ALOFT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND MID LEVEL COOLING. MEANWHILE A WEAK BUT
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT IS SPLAYED OUT EAST TO WEST ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. STORMS THAT TRAVEL NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO GENESIS. PER MODEL DATA AND
RECENT 18Z RAOB...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT OVERALL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH PLENTY
OF ML/SFC BASED CAPE SUGGESTS SEVERE IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SCT CELLS BECOMING A LINE AND TRACKING EAST
DURING THE EVENING. EVERYTHING SHOULD PUSH OFF INTO MINNESOTA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM THE WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR A
COUPLE DAYS WITH MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MORE
ENERGY RIDES UP AND OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY AM THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT WEST COAST
TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PARADE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PROMISES A DAILY ENVIRONMENT SET FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE BOTH H85/925 AND PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 STANDARD
DEVIATION...SO TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RUN WARMER/MORE
HUMID THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAJORITY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS HAVE THE LOWER PROBABILITY OF STORMS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY SET IN IF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS REALIZED
AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
158 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-034>037-191900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-
158 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009 /1258 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS
HIGH WINDS AND HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH NONE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SDZ033-045-048-051-191900-
STANLEY-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
158 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009 /1258 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH NONE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CONNELLY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>