Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WGUS73 KABR 231138
FFSABR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

SDC029-039-051-057-231146-
/O.EXP.KABR.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090323T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT SD-CODINGTON SD-DEUEL SD-HAMLIN SD-
638 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 AM CDT FOR HAMLIN...
DEUEL...CODINGTON AND GRANT COUNTIES...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION SO THE WARNING 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER...AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL 
BE ISSUED FOR CONTINUED FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.  

LAT...LON 4454 9750 4515 9750 4516 9723 4530 9722
      4531 9701 4533 9699 4533 9648 4523 9645
      4455 9646

$$
TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
907 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.UPDATE...
TRAINING ECHOS CONT TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE ERN
CWA...AND SAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE OF AN INCH AN HOUR WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER CELLS. CALLS PLACED TO EM AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
CONFIRM HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WARNING THROUGH
0430Z TO ACCOUNT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS.
FURTHER WEST...DRY SLOT HAS CLEARED OUT WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA...AND LATEST RUC/NAM12 SUGGEST THAT PCPN IS DONE FOR THAT AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN ACROSS THE
WEST...AND INSERTED SOME FOG AS TEMP/DWPTS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MOISTENING OF THE LOW LAYERS.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COMPLEX FORECAST TAKING SHAPE. FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY PUSHING INTO EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AS SFC LOW EJECTS
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MAY SEE A BREAK LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS DRY SLOT FOLLOWING INITIAL WAVE MOVES INTO AREA.

STRONG SFC LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. MAIN
CONCERN IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE
AS SYSTEM WRAPS UP. GFS STILL TRENDING A BIT WARMER...BUT BOTH
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT KPIR AND KMBG AROUND
12Z TUESDAY. WEST RIVER COUNTIES WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SOONER...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN FAR WESTERN CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED NEW WINTER STORM WATCHES AND PUT DEWEY AND
CORSON COUNTIES INTO A BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE WINDS LOOK
STRONGEST.

SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW AND
COLDER AIR AFFECTING THE EASTERN ZONES. A HIGHLIGHT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE ENOUGH WATCHES AND
WARNINGS IN PLACE ALREADY...AND STILL SOME QUESTION TO THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS...BUT MAINLY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD FOR THIS AREA. THOSE DIFFERENCES
INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIPITATION DROPPING OVER THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
NOW HAS THAT PRECIPITATION AS WELL...BUT KEEPS IT MORE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. THEREFORE...AM LEANING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS...AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...AND WITH COLDER AIR
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AT THAT TIME...WILL GO WITH LIGHT SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

NOT MUCH RELIEF IN SIGHT FOR TEMPERATURES UNDER COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AS H85 TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LOOKING AT UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE KABR AND KATY
TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. CONDS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AT KABR...WITH
ISOLD VFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE. KATY WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND MAY SEE OCNL IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN/LOW CIGS. FURTHER
WEST...KPIR AND KMBG WILL BE VFR THROUGH 06Z...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THEREAFTER...RESULTING IN PATCHY MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-HUGHES-POTTER-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CORSON-
     DEWEY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR JONES-STANLEY.

MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-232030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
325 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009 /225 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECT
MOSTLY EASTERN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MAJOR EARLY SPRING STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. REFER TO FSDWSWABR FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE CASTLEWOOD         44.71N 97.02W
03/22/2009  M1.45 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   PUBLIC

&&

CONNELLY