Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
245 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A 545 DM CENTER OFF THE
OREGON COAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN BASIN INTO ARIZONA AND NW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO...WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AZTEC AND TUCUMCARI PROFILER
MEASUREMENTS INDICATING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 TO 60 KNOTS BETWEEN 5
TO 10 KM ALOFT.  SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS GENERATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HAS
INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FROM CARLSBAD
AND ROSWELL TO TUCUMCARI.  THE BEST SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ARE
FOUND ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS ANALYZED FROM CHAVEZ THROUGH LINCOLN
...TORRANCE/GUADALUPE...AND SANTA FE/SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES. BELIEVE
THE CONVECTION WILL GENERATE FIRST ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE ACROSS
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF OROGRAPHIC AND THERMODYNAMIC LIFT. BELIEVE SUBSEQUENT LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND CLOSER TO
THE TEXAS BORDER. ALL STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER BEFORE A DRY ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
AND PUSHES ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.  ON FRIDAY MORNING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM CLAYTON TO
ROSWELL COOLING MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES.  A WEAK QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NW NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND BRINGS AN UPTICK
IN CLOUDINESS AND A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON SUNDAY BEFORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE CLIMATE
NORMALS.

BENNETT

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE TEXAS BORDER AND WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RETURN TO A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE ERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...LIKELY VLIFR TO MVFR
IN NATURE. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN PLAINS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. NON-SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER PUNCH OF AIR WILL SHOVE STRATUS AND PCPN INTO
TEXAS BY MID/LATE WED MORNING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE ERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED FOR MODERATE TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR ACROSS WRN NM HAS ALLOWED
FOR DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO APPROACH 70F IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FIRE ALONG THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. FOR TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF A COLFAX TO LINCOLN
COUNTY LINE...WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. RH VALUES IN THE E WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE
90 PERCENT IN MOST LOCALES. POOR/MODERATE RECOVERIES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD ON WED...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE EAST. IN FACT...AN HOUR/TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR LAS VEGAS AS
WELL AS CLINES CORNERS. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE NMZ103/104/107/109 INTERSECTION. WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT THIS REGION WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS THU NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND IMPROVED HUMIDITIES IN THE
EAST. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE
PCPN THREAT IN THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE ERN PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  76  40  78 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  33  72  33  75 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  35  74  33  77 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  38  80  40  83 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  27  62  28  65 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  69  42  77 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  27  59  28  61 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  34  69  30  73 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  41  74  39  76 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  75  41  78 /   5   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  41  78  38  80 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  51  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  76  48  80 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  46  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  40  76  41  76 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  38  72  38  74 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  39  76  39  74 /  20   0   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  72  42  73 /  10   0   0   5
ROY.............................  47  75  47  75 /  20   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  51  78  50  78 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  46  83  48  83 /  10   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  84  54  85 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  84  51  85 /  10   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  55  83  56  87 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  55  84  55  88 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  56  86  55  90 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

01/46

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
231 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

NMZ016-017-282100-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH
PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
231 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 228 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR SAN PATRICIO. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARABELA...HONDO AND
LINCOLN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

NMZ016-017-282130-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH
PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
251 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 248 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR SAN PATRICIO. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARABELA AND LINCOLN.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

40