Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
257 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...HAS LED TO A SVR TSTM WATCH IN THE NE FOR
LATE THIS PM AND EVE. CNTRL AND SRN AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING TSTMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THANKS TO A FRESH SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND LAST NIGHTS BACK DOOR FRONT. FAR NW PORTION OF
THE STATE HAS DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHOWER. THIS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW ON MON BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT MON PM AND EVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS FORECAST FOR TUE AND BEYOND AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE E
AND SW ON TUE...THEN THE ONLY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SW ON WED...THE SW AND WC MOUNTAINS ON THU
AND THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS FRI THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
ASSUMES THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH N
AND E TO ALLOW A LITTLE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP INTO THE W AND
EVENTUALLY NRN NM. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THIS COMING
WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. AS MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THEY WILL GENERATE LOCAL EASTERLY CANYON WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. PATCHY BKN TO OVC CIGS AOB 3000 FT AGL WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF OUR
AREA TODAY...ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS TO
ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MONDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY TO FURTHER
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHILE ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOTTER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS OR AT LEAST
20S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  95  57  95 /  10  10  10   0
GALLUP..........................  52  89  51  90 /  10  10  10   0
GRANTS..........................  54  89  53  92 /  20  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  59  96  57  95 /  30  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  46  82  44  80 /  30  20  20   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  86  54  87 /  30  30  20   0
RED RIVER.......................  44  77  42  78 /  40  30  30  10
TAOS............................  51  86  47  88 /  40  40  20   5
SANTA FE........................  55  87  55  90 /  30  30  30   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  89  57  92 /  30  20  20   0
ESPANOLA........................  57  92  54  93 /  30  20  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  92  66  94 /  30  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  93  63  95 /  30  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  88  62  91 /  30  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  92  63  95 /  30  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  63  92  63  93 /  40  20  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  83  51  85 /  30  20  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  88  55  91 /  40  30  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  89  60  94 /  30  30  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  51  81  53  84 /  40  30  30  10
RATON...........................  54  86  51  91 /  40  30  30  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  84  53  88 /  40  40  30  10
ROY.............................  60  85  59  87 /  40  30  30  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  87  61  94 /  40  30  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  60  90  60  95 /  40  30  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  91  64  99 /  40  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  91  65  97 /  30  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  63  88  65  96 /  30  20  40   5
PORTALES........................  65  90  67  94 /  30  20  40   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  68 100 /  30  20  30   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

NMZ001>021-026-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WHERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLOODING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WHERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

REMEMBER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
COLFAX...UNION...MORA...HARDING AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES DUE TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE
WEB SITE...OR BY CALLING 1-888-386-7637.

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