Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO LAST SECTION.

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWFA.
LATEST HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A QUASI-STATIONARY YET VERY
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DEVELOPING
DRYLINE PUSHING THROUGH ERN ROOSEVELT AND CHAVES COUNTIES. APPEARS
STORM INITIATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS SURFACE DRYLINE...HOWEVER
THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS UNTIL THEY WALK INTO WEST TX.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS ALLOWED DISTURBANCES TO
MIGRATE THROUGH WESTERN CO AND ANOTHER IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 OR 50 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS UNTIL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE REGION. THE
POP VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE PRELIMINARY AND WILL MAKE A FINAL
EVALUATION BEFORE ISSUING OFFICIAL AFTERNOON PACKAGE. TOUGHEST CALL
WILL BE COVERAGE OF STORMS BETWEEN 6PM AND 10PM. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DECOUPLE. A
FINAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL PIVOT OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE FOR MONDAY. THIS
WILL BASICALLY ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SAVE THE FAR
NRN MOUNTAINS AND THE COLORADO BORDER IN NE NM. AFTERNOON READINGS
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...
WHILE THE ERN PLAINS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL COMPLIMENTS OF A
SEMI-DECENT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. STRONG SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH
POOR HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

BY TUE...GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A CLOSED UPR LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER AZ/WRN NM. IT
APPEARS AN UPPER HIGH WILL ALSO PARK IN THE SRN GULF STATES. BASED
ON THIS PATTERN...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL COULD ADVECT NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE
UPPER HIGH AND CLOSED LOW. MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME QPF WEDNESDAY...
PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NM. INHERITED TOKEN TEN POPS MAY BE A
TAD LOW BASED ON THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL NOT ADJUST UNTIL CLOSER IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO ENSURE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH.
THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN APPEARS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AS IT TRIES TO RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...THE FORECAST MAY TREND CLOSER TO A
TYPICAL MID/LATE JUNE REGIME. DPORTER

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STORMS WILL FORM LINES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 40 KTS...WHILE ANY LINES THAT DEVELOP
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AT SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 30 KTS. DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED AND GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PRODUCING THE PRECIP WILL
EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO TAKE
ON A DRIER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG...SO
MONDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER.
HUMIDITIES WILL CRATER MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THUS...
WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ALL ZONES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
AS FAR NORTH AS U.S. HIGHWAY 64.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO CRATER
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES
COULD RETURN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
RAISING HUMIDITIES AND DROPPING WIND SPEEDS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  82  51  88 /  10   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  46  77  44  83 /   5   5   5   5
GRANTS..........................  45  79  41  85 /  10   5   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  86  48  92 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  38  69  36  78 /  20   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  77  47  80 /  30   5   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  38  66  35  73 /  20  10  10   5
TAOS............................  42  77  41  83 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  50  80  50  86 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  50  82  49  87 /  20   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  48  84  47  89 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  85  60  90 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  86  54  92 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  85  57  89 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  57  86  55  92 /  10   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  56  88  55  92 /  10   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  76  44  81 /  20   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  83  49  87 /  10   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  86  55  91 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  53  80  50  83 /  20   0   0   0
RATON...........................  47  83  46  89 /  10   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  81  48  86 /  20   5   5   5
ROY.............................  54  86  53  88 /  10   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  91  58  91 /  10   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  57  92  56  96 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  96  59  98 /  30   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  95  61  98 /  30   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  62  97 /  40   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  61  96  60  98 /  40   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  99  64 100 /  20   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

46/44

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