Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...500 MB LOW WHICH WAS STILL ANCHORED OVER SOCAL AND
WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING FINALLY STARTED MOVING DURING THE
MORNING. BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY CLEARED SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER BEHIND IT. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE THESE ZONES FROM THE
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND NOW FIRING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST
SYSTEM WILL EXIT RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WILL MODIFY
REMAINING ADVISORY FOR ZONES 2 AND 4 TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM.

THAT SAID...NOT SURE WHY ADJUSTED MET/MAV GUIDANCE HANG ONTO SOME
HEFTY POPS OVER EAST AND NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TRIMMED
BACK ON THOSE NUMBERS BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT.
ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FROM FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH WINDS IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTED SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS BY 12Z OVER THAT
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH AND
HAVE PUSHED THE STRONGER WINDS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA FROM RATON TO LAS VEGAS TO
CLINES CORNERS EASTWARD AND SOUTH TO CLOVIS BUT IN HONOR OF THE KISS
PRINCIPLE DON/T WANT TO CONFUSE MATTERS MORE IF SPC DOES ISSUE A
WATCH BOX THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS PONDER THE WIND
ISSUE.

NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE CHAMA AREA
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY CHUSKAS...SNOW BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SO LOOK FOR
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO GO UP SOMETIME MONDAY IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. THURSDAY/S SYSTEM MAY NOT BE STRONG OR DEEP...BUT ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM COULD MAR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR...LIFR AND OCCASIONAL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 06Z...BUT
THESE CONDITIONS MAY TAPER OFF SOONER FARTHER WEST NEAR KFMN. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
CHANGE FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE TX BORDER BETWEEN APPROX 21Z AND 07Z. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM KROW TO KTCC.  BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIXED BAG OF ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS
RAPIDLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...AND WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE HAS ENDED...A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM OR TWO MAY
MOVE IN FROM ARIZONA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY PICK UP A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. NONETHELESS...GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.  THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN
TWO SYSTEM TOMORROW. HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS STRONG MIXING IS ABLE TO
TAP 700 MB WINDS NEAR 50KT.  EXPECT A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO BE ISSUED DURING A LATER SHIFT. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 15
PERCENT...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED AREAS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A CORRESPONDING BOOST TO DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. SNOW WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ELSEWHERE.
WITH TRANSPORT WINDS REMAINING STRONG...VENTILATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT CATEGORY STATEWIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  27  45  25  39 /  40  40  70  30
GALLUP..........................  21  41  21  32 /  20  30  70  60
GRANTS..........................  20  44  20  34 /  20  20  40  70
GLENWOOD........................  24  52  27  45 /  20  10  50  80
CHAMA...........................  16  36  13  32 /  60  60  70  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  46  23  37 /  30  20  40  60
RED RIVER.......................  15  31  12  26 /  60  30  50  60
TAOS............................  21  40  17  34 /  50  30  40  60
SANTA FE........................  24  43  22  36 /  30  20  30  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  26  45  26  37 /  30  20  20  60
ESPANOLA........................  24  49  22  41 /  40  20  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  32  53  32  42 /  10  10  20  60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  53  28  44 /  10   5  20  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  49  28  39 /  10  10  20  60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  52  29  45 /  10  10  20  60
SOCORRO.........................  28  56  30  49 /  10   5  10  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  45  23  34 /  20  10  20  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  49  27  37 /  20   5  10  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  53  32  45 /  10   5  20  60
RUIDOSO.........................  25  50  29  43 /  20   0  10  60
RATON...........................  23  51  22  43 /  50   5  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  27  47  25  37 /  40  10  20  30
ROY.............................  29  52  28  43 /  60   5  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  32  59  27  48 /  70   0   0  20
SANTA ROSA......................  31  59  32  50 /  30   5  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  36  62  34  50 /  60   0   5  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  63  33  51 /  30   0   5  20
CLOVIS..........................  35  62  37  56 /  60   0   0  20
PORTALES........................  35  64  34  56 /  60   0   0  20
ROSWELL.........................  37  65  38  57 /  40   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002-004.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
447 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

NMZ001>021-026-091300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
447 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM DES MOINES...TO FORT SUMNER....TO ROSWELL. HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 11 PM WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SEE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON MONDAY.

A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...INCLUDING
ONE STORM ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ONE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THESE
STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPOTTERS IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1.888.386.7637 OR ON THE ALBUQUERQUE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE.

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

NMZ013-018>021-082300-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-QUAY
COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
336 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER EASTERN DE BACA COUNTY...

AT 331 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TOLAR TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAIBAN TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ELKINS. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MCALISTER AND THE
MELROSE BOMBING RANGE.

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
419 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

NMZ018>020-082345-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
419 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST DE BACA...
NORTHEAST CHAVES...AND NORTHWEST ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TOLAR TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKINS. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE RURAL NORTHEASTERN
CHAVES COUNTY...RURAL EAST CENTRAL DE BACA COUNTY AND RURAL
NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

GUYER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

NMZ019>021-090115-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
529 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER ROOSEVELT COUNTY...

AT 528 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF
PORTALES TO 8 MILES WEST OF PORTALES TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DORA TO
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PEP TO 12 MILES WEST OF MILNESAND. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ARCH...CANNON AFB...
FLOYD...PORTAIR...ROGERS AND TEXICO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

GUYER