Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED TODAY.
THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE MOISTURE INFUSION BROUGHT ON BY THE
BACK DOOR FRONT. PW VALUES ARENT ENORMOUS BUT THE RIGHT MIX OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAS PROVIDED TODAY/S ACTION. SUSPECT THAT
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CELLS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN DUE TO STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS.

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORECAST EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MADE A
FEW MODIFICATIONS TO INHERITED GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED EACH DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FIRE UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BASED ON STEERING FLOW. WEATHER MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOME PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PRETTY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND STORM
TRANSLATION WILL BE DOMINATED BY INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND THE SO CALLED BUMPER CAR AFFECT. OVERALL. ADJUSTED POP GRIDS
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THIS. AS FAR AS THE WEEKEND GOES...BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS SLIDE A WEAK UPPER WAVE EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SAME TIME THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY
BREAKS DOWN. STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. ONE OR TWO RIPPLES OF ENERGY CAUGHT IN THIS FLOW
COULD ACT TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY OVER SOME PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE SOME WESTERN AREAS
BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE
BAJA...THUS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY ACT TO DRY OUT
THE STATE.

IT APPEARS THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL BE DRIER
OVERALL AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE WESTERN TIER. WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE THE DRYING PROCESS. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...AT LEAST EARLY
ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BACK
DOOR FRONT TO CONSIDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS AND ECMWF
ARE AT ODDS WITH THE STRENGTH.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY OR MID
EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...FEATURING SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH SOME WIND SHEAR...ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NM AND AREAS NEAR AND UP TO ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER MOST
STORMS TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR OR EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG MAY RETURN TO SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AS WELL AS SOME SPOTS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS THOUGH WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WAS THE CASE EARLY
TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THU AFTN WITH EMPHASIS AGAIN NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MTS AND IN THE GILA REGION.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIX OF DRY AND WET STORMS IN W NM INTO THIS EVENING...MORE WET THAN
DRY CENTRAL SECTIONS AND MOSTLY WET IN THE E. BE ALERT FOR SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHAFTS W AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
SECTIONS. FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THU AS FORECAST AREA GOES
INTO MOISTURE RECYCLE MODE WITH NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL FRESH MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY MAY BRING A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND WETNESS. LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND MORE SO INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO OVERTAKE THE
STATE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST MAY HAVE A STRONG ENOUGH IMPULSE COME UP TOWARD THE STATE
BEFORE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT SO THAT AN UPTICK IN
STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

OVERALL...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE NORM DURING THE
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALIZED EVENING
GAP WINDS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
ABOVE 15 PCT EVERYWHERE IN THE EAST AND MAJORITY OF LOCALES IN THE
WEST. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 0 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY BUT GENERALLY WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  47  80  49  84 /  10  20  30  20
GALLUP..........................  45  74  43  78 /  10  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  45  74  47  78 /  20  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  47  85  49  89 /  10  20  20  30
CHAMA...........................  35  65  37  69 /  30  40  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  67  48  71 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  31  56  33  60 /  40  60  40  40
TAOS............................  41  68  43  72 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  44  69  46  73 /  30  30  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  45  73  47  77 /  30  10  40  20
ESPANOLA........................  44  77  46  81 /  20  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  54  76  56  80 /  20  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  82  57  86 /  20  10  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  53  75  55  79 /  20  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  53  81  55  85 /  30  10  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  54  84  56  88 /  30  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  69  46  73 /  20  20  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  73  45  77 /  20  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  79  52  83 /  30  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  41  69  43  73 /  30  30  30  40
RATON...........................  45  70  47  74 /  30  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  70  43  74 /  40  40  30  20
ROY.............................  48  72  50  76 /  30  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  48  80  50  84 /  20   5  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  51  80  54  84 /  20  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  82  56  86 /  10  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  82  55  86 /  20  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  52  82  56  86 /  10  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  52  83  57  87 /  10  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  54  83  57  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

50/43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

NMZ001>021-026-281200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
309 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE MID EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND MINOR FLOODING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS... WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

50

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
250 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

NMZ002-003-010-272115-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
250 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER EASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTY...

AT 249 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 5 MILES WEST OF COCHITI PUEBLO.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COCHITI LAKE...DOMINGO...
LA BAJADA...PENA BLANCA AND SANTO DOMINGO PUEBLO.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             LAS VEGAS               35.60N 105.22W
05/27/2009  M0.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL ACCUMULATED TO AROUND 4 INCHES IN DEPTH

&&

EBREON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

NMZ005-272200-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
329 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY...

AT 329 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCATE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL CENTRAL MORA COUNTY
AND RURAL EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON THE HIGHWAYS AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

40