Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED.  THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
VERY UNSTABLE AIR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LAPS ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM KRTN...TO KLVS....TO PORTALES...WITH ANOTHER POCKET OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS. MEANWHILE THE NAM CONTINUES
TO INDICATE 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA.  SOUTHEASTERLY
SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.  THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING. ADDING TO THE LIFT IS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE MAIN STORM MODE WILL BE
SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
THE CWA UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THUS...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY
SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND/OR SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...WITH
PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NW.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THIS SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE BACK THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON THURSDAY AFTN/EVE AND MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THIS PUSH MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND THOUGH
BEHIND THE FRONT IT WONT BE AS MOISTURE RICH AS THE FRONT
YESTERDAY..IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHOULD THE
MOISTURE REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE AZ BORDER...THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...DESPITE THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN...AND MOISTURE MAY BE RECYCLED IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS TO NORTHWEST. THROUGH 12Z WED...VFR
CONDITIONS WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS WITH GUSTY
WINDS OVER MAINLY GILA REGION. CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS
BORDER...WDLY SCT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE
TO STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KT AND LARGE HAIL TIL 03Z. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR TX BORDER POSSIBLE AFT 06Z.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AREAS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DRY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH
LATE DAY HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE SWEPT TOWARDS THE
TEXAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS...RESULTING IN
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATE DAY RH WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE WEST...AND SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THURSDAY WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND POSSIBLY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOR AN UPSWING IN CONVECTION. BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...LARGELY PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  49  91  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  38  85  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  42  85  44  86 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  44  89  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  43  83  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  41  88  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  46  86  44  88 /   0   0   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  55  93  54  95 /   5   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  36  80  38  83 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  85  51  85 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  49  86  50  83 /  20   0   0  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  41  82  44  82 /  20   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  36  74  38  72 /  20   0   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  76  36  75 /  20   0   0  10
TAOS............................  40  84  43  85 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  45  92  48  91 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  49  87  54  85 /  10   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  50  90  52  87 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  91  59  92 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  92  62  91 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  93  58  93 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  92  59  93 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  94  56  94 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  60  92  59  92 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  59  93  57  93 /  10   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  84  47  83 /  10   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  89  51  86 /  10   0   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  86  55  80 /  20   0   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  87  56  86 /  20   5   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  92  57  90 /  20   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  55  84  53  80 /  30  10   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  49  85  48  75 /  60  10  10  10
RATON...........................  47  87  50  79 /  50  10   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  85  51  80 /  30   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  59  88  57  77 /  60  10  10  10
ROY.............................  59  88  56  79 /  50   5  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  61  97  63  84 /  50   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  58  94  56  84 /  50   5   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  98  62  84 /  50   5  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  63  95  60  82 /  40   5  10  10
PORTALES........................  64  96  62  83 /  30   5  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  96  62  84 /  40   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  65  99  64  88 /  20   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  61  95  59  85 /  30   5   5  10
ELK.............................  57  90  56  83 /  30  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1240 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

NMZ501>540-191200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
1240 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
140 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

NMZ523-524-533-539-182015-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
140 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST TORRANCE COUNTY...

AT 140 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 5 MILES NORTH OF CORONA.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DURAN.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 10535 3433 10519 3421 10562 3437 10570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 247DEG 20KT 3432 10556

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
152 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             4 E ELK                 32.94N 105.26W
08/18/2009  M0.75 INCH       CHAVES             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL LASTED 35 MINUTES

&&

CJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
226 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HAIL             2 SSE SOUTH SAN YSIDRO  35.42N 105.56W
08/18/2009  E1.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF SIZE HAIL ESTIMATED.

&&

MTORRES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

NMZ540-182130-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
301 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 300 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOPE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES
COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 10517 3281 10494 3270 10481 3253 10482
      3252 10483 3251 10505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 323DEG 22KT 3263 10494

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             LAS VEGAS               35.60N 105.22W
08/18/2009  E1.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF SIZE HAIL

&&

MTORRES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

NMZ540-182215-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
331 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 330 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOPE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES
COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 10507 3274 10490 3268 10481 3253 10482
      3252 10483 3252 10498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 303DEG 7KT 3258 10489

40