Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADIENT. DEWPOINT VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR 60F OVER THE SE TO
THE TEENS IN THE NW CORNER. THE WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS IS EVIDENT ON
VIS SAT IMAGERY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW NM NORTHEAST INTO THE NE
PLAINS. GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT INDICATES MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS ABOUT 40-60 PCT OF MID AUGUST NORMALS BUT VALUES
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOL
IS DEEPENING OVER THE BAJA CA REGION WHERE PWAT VALUES HAVE RISEN TO
2.5 INCHES TODAY. THE 400-250MB ACARS WIND PLOT INDICATES THE UPPER
HIGH IS REDEVELOPING OVER NM TODAY...THUS CAPPING THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR NOW.

12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY THE 595DM H5 DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. 700-500MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AZ LATE TUESDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER HIGH DEFORMS MORE LONGITUDINALLY INTO A 592DM
RIDGE. THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PARTICULARLY THE 12Z ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM
12Z GEM/UKMET/NOGAPS INCREASE MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL EJECT THE
HIGH EAST INTO TX FOR A MONSOON SETUP OF THE 700-500MB FLOW OVER NM THURS
THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AS A LARGE SCALE STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF REBUILDS
A HIGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND STALLS THE MEAN MOIST AXIS
ACROSS THE SW CONUS. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PATTERN. HOWEVER
IT DOES APPEAR THE CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR THE REMAINDER OF AUGUST
TO BE BETTER IN TERMS OF RAINFALL THAN JULY FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY IMPACTING TAF SITES KROW...KTCC...AND KLVS. AM
ANTICIPATING STORM ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 52

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING OVER NEW MEXICO. WHILE A
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS...OTHER NOTABLE FIRE
WEATHER VARIABLES INCLUDE THE HIGH HAINES INDICES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHERE H7 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 25 TO 30C ARE COUPLED WITH SURFACE RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT.

SIMILAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS SOME ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIFTS
EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...
ULTIMATELY LOWERING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...
AND RISING HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME RELIEF TO
THE HIGH HAINES VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS. 52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  49  93  58  93 /   0   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  37  85  46  86 /   0   0   5  10
CUBA............................  44  88  51  88 /   0   5   5  30
GALLUP..........................  42  89  52  90 /   0   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  44  87  50  85 /   0   0   5  20
GRANTS..........................  44  90  52  89 /   0   0   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  50  88  55  86 /   0   5  10  30
GLENWOOD........................  62  91  62  91 /   5   0  10  20
CHAMA...........................  39  81  42  81 /   5  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  83  58  82 /   5   5  10  20
PECOS...........................  54  84  55  83 /  10  30  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  43  80  48  80 /  10  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  42  74  43  74 /  10  30  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  40  76  43  76 /  10  30  20  40
TAOS............................  44  86  51  85 /   5  10  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  46  90  56  90 /   0   5   5  20
SANTA FE........................  52  87  56  86 /   5  10  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  90  59  88 /   5  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  89  65  88 /   0   5  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  92  68  90 /   0   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  93  67  91 /   0   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  93  66  91 /   0   5  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  94  62  92 /   0   5  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  65  90 /   0   5  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  61  94  64  92 /   5   5  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  81  54  85 /   5  20  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  89  57  86 /  10  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  86  57  85 /  20  30  20  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  89  58  86 /  20  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  91  61  88 /  30  20  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  81  55  79 /  30  30  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  54  79  55  82 /  40  30  30  20
RATON...........................  52  86  55  86 /  20  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  83  53  83 /  10  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  62  87  62  89 /  40  20  30  20
ROY.............................  61  85  59  84 /  30  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  91  62  89 /  20  20  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  65  92  63  90 /  20  20  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  93  65  92 /  20  10  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  66  89 /  10  10  30   5
PORTALES........................  66  91  66  90 /  10  10  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  92  67  92 /  10  10  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  68  94  69  93 /  10  10  20   5
PICACHO.........................  63  90  63  87 /  10  20  20   5
ELK.............................  58  84  58  81 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

GUYER/52

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