Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH
THE STATE. THIS REGION HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WHICH
LED TO LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. MEANWHILE...THE ERN PLAINS
CONTINUES TO ENJOY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE NE PLAINS
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE. IT APPEARS STORMS WILL BE
MIGRATING INTO THIS MOISTURE RICH AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SPC
HAS POSTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 05Z/FRI FOR
THIS REGION. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AS
WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL TO AN MCS IN
SOUTHEAST NM WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. GAP WINDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE MET GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING 17 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRI WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIETER PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
SURFACE FRONT WILL WASH OUT WITH AFTERNOON MIXING TAKING A TOLL ON
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF WET
AND DRY CELLS CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PLUNGE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE TO THE ERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL
WIMPY WITH QPF AND CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH INHERITED POPS. MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIER IN
NATURE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT SQUEEZES THRU THE
CENTRAL MTS.

UPR LEVEL RIDGE WILL MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RECYCLE MODE OF MOISTURE. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DRIER IN NATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
MOISTURE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS SHUNTED INTO WRN/
CENTRAL AZ. DPORTER

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND SHORT DURATION IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ...SAF...LVS WILL INITIALLY BE
AFFECTED BUT EVENTUALLY THE STRONGER STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND AFFECT TCC AND ROW. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EITHER AFFECT ROW OR
TCC LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH ROW THE MOST LIKELY
CHOICE. LOW CIGS FOLLOWING THE RAIN EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
LVS...ROW AND TCC WITH ROW HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LONG
DURATION OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 KT WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. ABUNDANT WETTING RAIN
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A MODERATE TO STRONG GAP WIND ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST BUT DRIER
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS GOING WITH A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THERE WITH DRIER CELLS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WETTER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD.

A BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN GAPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE WILL AFFECT THE STATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL
DIURNALLY SLOSH BACK AND FORTH FROM EAST TO WEST AND BACK TO THE
EAST. WETTER STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MTS EASTWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. 50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON......................  61  91  57  94 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  47  83  47  86 /  20  10   5   5
CUBA............................  49  84  50  85 /  30  10   5  10
GALLUP..........................  53  87  56  90 /  20  10   5   5
EL MORRO........................  50  84  50  87 /  20  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  50  88  50  89 /  20  10   5  10
QUEMADO.........................  54  87  55  89 /  10  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  61  93  62  97 /  10  10  10  10
CHAMA...........................  45  77  45  80 /  20  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  83  52  86 /  30  10  10  10
PECOS...........................  50  82  52  84 /  40  20  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  79  46  81 /  30  20  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  42  71  43  71 /  30  20  10  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  74  44  75 /  30  20  10  20
TAOS............................  48  82  47  85 /  30  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  55  90  55  92 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  54  84  56  87 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  87  56  89 /  30  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  89  65  91 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  89  66  91 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  90  63  92 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  89  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  93  63  94 /  40  10  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  62  90  63  93 /  40  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  61  93  64  94 /  30  10  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  84  54  85 /  40  10  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  86  55  88 /  40  10  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  83  55  83 /  50  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  85  57  88 /  40  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  89  61  92 /  40  10  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  52  79  55  81 /  60  30  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  51  81  49  77 /  40  20  20  10
RATON...........................  51  85  52  83 /  30  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  84  53  81 /  40  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  54  88  59  81 /  30  20  20  10
ROY.............................  57  88  58  81 /  40  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  60  94  61  88 /  30  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  59  93  59  88 /  40  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  94  63  88 /  40  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  59  89  63  88 /  40  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  62  90  64  89 /  40  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  91  64  92 /  40  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  66  90  69  94 /  60  10  20  10
PICACHO.........................  63  87  64  90 /  60  20  20  10
ELK.............................  58  85  62  86 /  70  20  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

46/50

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     HAIL             BANDELIER NATIONAL MONU 35.78N 106.27W
07/30/2009  M0.88 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

ABA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2009

NMZ524>526-539-302300-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
429 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 428 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR ANCHO. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANCHO AND JICARILLA.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHOEMAKE

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