Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
NE/E/SE PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 601 WILL RUN
UNTIL 03Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY
OVER UNION COUNTY/FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE ADDITIONAL VORTICITY
AXIS AND LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND
NORTHEAST NM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY PRESENT A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION KEEPING A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS PATTERN
SETUP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING PERIODIC COLD
FRONT/BOUNDARY INTRUSIONS.

IMPORTANT NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY JULY 22ND AT 300 PM MDT...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE WILL ISSUE PUBLIC FORECASTS
AND WARNING PRODUCTS USING NEW ZONE BOUNDARIES. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...
PLEASE REFER TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ/ZONES/2009PUBLICZONES.PHP
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/.

KW

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM LINES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS THEY MARCH SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALSO THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS MAY HELP SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 9 PM MDT OR SO. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR EXIT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COULD SPARK SPOTTIER AND WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE
PLAINS. THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTION...WITH SMALLER CHANCES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DELIVERED
BY THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW
MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND ARIZONA. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST OVER NM WITH REPEATED BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS DROPPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
DROVE INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A 10 TO 30 MPH EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS. THIS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...SCATTERED STORMS IN THE SW MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM ON SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A
MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE MOISTURE INJECTED BY TONIGHTS BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL RECYCLE MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION.

MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST PERHAPS AS FREQUENTLY AS DAILY OR EVERY OTHER DAY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THESE FRONTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT MORE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST
WINDS AND MOISTURE INTRUSIONS UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE
PROBABLE. NONETHELESS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62 100  62 100 /   5   5   5  10
GALLUP..........................  55  94  56  94 /  10  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  56  94  58  94 /  10  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  62  94  64  97 /  10  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  43  84  44  87 /  10  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  90  56  92 /  20  20  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  43  75  42  80 /  20  30  20  20
TAOS............................  51  88  51  91 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  56  90  56  92 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  92  58  96 /  20  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  56  94  51  98 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  95  69  98 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  69  94  67  96 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  94  64  97 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  96  67  99 /  10  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  70  94  67  94 /  10  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  87  55  87 /  20  30  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  90  55  92 /  30  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  71  94  66  95 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  60  83  58  83 /  30  30  30  20
RATON...........................  53  88  53  91 /  20  40  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  86  54  89 /  30  40  30  30
ROY.............................  58  83  59  88 /  40  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  57  89  63  92 /  20  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  92  64  95 /  40  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  94  66  98 /  50  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  91  68  94 /  50  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  65  91  66  96 /  50  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  90  66  93 /  50  30  30  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  95  69  99 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

NMZ001>021-026-191200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1143 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE NEST TO ROSWELL.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 25 FROM RATON SOUTH TO WATROUS AND
INTERSTATE 40 FROM GLEN RIO WEST TO SANTA ROSA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MONDAY POSES A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND HIGHLANDS OF NEW MEXICO.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             UTE PARK                36.56N 105.11W
07/18/2009  E0.75 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM PEAS TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES

&&

EBREON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

NMZ004-005-190045-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
610 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
   COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 607 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAXWELL.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 20 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE OVER THE
PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CIMARRON...MIAMI...
PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH AND RAYADO.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
634 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

NMZ019-190100-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
634 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 632 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELKINS. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL CENTRAL CHAVES
COUNTY.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

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