Red Flag Warning 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
A VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM
THE JET CORE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FAVORING
THE NORTH TODAY. COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING BUT MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LATEST GUIDANCE RUN
INCREASED WINDS TO OVER 35 KNOTS OVER ZONES 502...505 AND 506.
WILL BE UPGRADING THE ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS
PACKAGE. WILL ALSO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE AS THE
NAM-WRF NOW DEPICTING 700MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS THROUGH 00Z AND
OVER 40 KTS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
FOR MOST LOCALES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-40 WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

COLDER AIRMASS TO SPILL INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR
ZONES 501...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 530 AND 528. A FREEZE OF 30-32
DEGREES HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT
TO MAKE ANOTHER INSPECTION AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FREEZE WATCH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO PROVIDE A RESPITE TO THE WIND AND ACTIVE
PATTERN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STRONG TROUGH
TO DIVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH COULD DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO WITH INCREASING
POP CHANCES INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

KW

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WITH AREAS OF BKN/OVC040 PUSHING NORTH AND EAST INTO WESTERN
NEW MEXICO FROM 15Z ONWARD...WITH CIGS AOA BKN060 AGL SPREADING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING BY 03Z.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH MUSCULAR PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
PRODUCE SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 50 KTS FROM ARIZONA LINE TO RIO GRANDE
FROM 17Z ONWARD EXPANDING TO THE CENTRAL MTS AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDX EASING OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AFTER
06Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONTG TO 12Z AND BEYOND TO THE EAST.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FIRE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS EAST TO THE
TEXAS BORDER FROM MID MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.

FOR TODAY...AGGRESSIVE PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMIC HELP FOR WEST TO EAST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY. WITH HUMIDITIES STILL IN THE 20S BROADLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WILL EXPECT EARLY ONSET OF HUMIDITY PLUNGE INTO
THE LOW TEENS BY MID MORNING AS WIND SPEEDS PICK UP. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. BROADLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL MODERATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE ONLY FAIR INTO THE WEE
HOURS ON THURSDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HILLTOP SHOWERS AND HIGHER
PEAK SNOW DUSTING AS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SWING
THROUGH...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH SOME
INCREASES IN PRECIP ON TAP FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE.

FOR THURSDAY...WEATHER SYSTEM CLEARING THE STATE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH COLD FRONT SAGGED THROUGH TO THE MEXICO BORDER AND CLEARING THE
STATE TO THE EAST. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
THE STATE WILL PROVIDE ACCELERATOR FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY...WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES MOVING TO DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES MOVING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS STATEWIDE FOR
ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SPEEDY WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER EARLY START TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS...MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE SOUTH...AND FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE. HAVE HOISTED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY MID MORNING TO THURSDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS TO COVER FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURE PLUNGES BELOW
FREEZING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST...WITH RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. BEST CHANCES FOR EXCURSION BELOW 32
IN AREAS WHERE WINDS EASE UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAKENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR BROAD WARMING TREND...BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY OCTOBER NORMS FOR MOST OF THE
STATE. CONTINUED SINGLE DIGIT AND LOW TEENS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FOR
THE DAY WITH FAIR TO POOR RECOVERIES FRIDAY NIGHT IN CONTINUED
DRYING PATTERN.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING AS NEXT INBOUND
WEST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW COUNTERACTED BY LIMITED SUNSHINE DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
WIND SPEEDS LOWEST CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS TO THE
EAST HEADING INTO MONDAY.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  80  36  56  28 /  20   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  70  29  57  23 /  30   5   0   0
CUBA............................  74  33  57  24 /  20   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  74  33  57  19 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  74  33  57  25 /  10   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  78  36  59  21 /  10   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  78  36  62  25 /  10   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  84  50  75  32 /   5   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  68  27  53  19 /  40  10   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  73  37  56  32 /  20   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  75  39  59  29 /  10   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  70  31  53  18 /  20  10   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  65  27  48  22 /  30  20   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  29  52  20 /  20  20   0   0
TAOS............................  74  34  57  21 /  20  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  82  40  62  27 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  77  39  58  31 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  80  40  61  30 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  45  63  39 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  85  48  65  39 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  48  67  33 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  48  66  37 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  48  69  33 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  85  47  66  36 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  87  52  73  38 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  74  40  60  30 /  10  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  44  64  32 /   5   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  43  64  35 /  10   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  48  66  37 /   5   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  54  71  39 /   5  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  77  52  63  36 /  10  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  78  41  59  27 /   5  20   0   0
RATON...........................  82  38  61  27 /   5  10   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  44  61  30 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  90  49  64  36 /   5  10   5   0
ROY.............................  88  47  64  36 /   5  10   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  93  51  68  36 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  53  68  36 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  54  71  36 /   5   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  90  57  71  40 /  10   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  91  58  73  38 /  10   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  93  55  71  38 /   5   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  94  60  80  44 /   5   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  90  60  77  41 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  84  58  71  40 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105-106.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-503-504-507-508-510>524-527>535.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-505-506.

&&

17/SHY

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