Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
AND STRENGTHEN AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
NOW...HOWEVER CIRRUS SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NM AS
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENTERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AIDE IN SNOW MELT IN THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF RAPID SNOW MELT THAT OCCURRED SATURDAY...THINK THAT HIGHS IN
THE 60S WILL BE OBTAINABLE IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TO
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE FOR THIS
AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS. OTHERWISE...CRITICAL
FIRE WX WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FLOW AT H7 IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP FROM 30 TO 50KT IN SOME AREAS
THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS THAT A FEW WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. SO THERE WILL BE A LACK OF EFFICIENT MIXING DURING THIS
EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME...AND THIS COULD PROVE TO BE THE ONLY
INHIBITING VARIABLE.

FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY AND MANY
WESTERN AND CENTRAL RIDGE TOPS WILL STAY WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THUS MONDAY WILL BE WINDIER IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE STATE BY LATE MONDAY AND
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A QUIETER DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER AND
ATTENDANT FRONT IMPACT THE NORTHERN ZONES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
AFTERWARDS...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL COME IN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH CONVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISING A FAIRLY
BROAD AREA OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW SFC GUSTS OF 30-40KTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06
AND 12Z MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT
PRECIP TO KFMN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF ATTM.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. KW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO EAST THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. SPC HAS
EXPANDED THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA AND THE NFDRS RATING HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO A HIGH TO VERY HIGH RATING. SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE STATE HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER CLASS FOR
TODAY. WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
EXPAND IT FURTHER EAST. WILL LINE UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AS
WELL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY. THIS AS A
STRONG SURFACE LOW TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG WINDS DURING MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL THAN TODAY...HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE FRONT AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN HOUR OR TWO OF RED FLAG IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE FRONT WILL BE LATER
TO ARRIVE. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AFTER MONDAY...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETUP IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONE
OR TWO HOURS OF RED FLAG MAY OCCUR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER DRY AND WINDY DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIP
CHANCES.

KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  30  46  25 /   0  20  20   0
GALLUP..........................  63  30  41  18 /   0  10  30   0
GRANTS..........................  64  32  43  18 /   0   5  20   0
GLENWOOD........................  68  36  63  28 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  53  16  35   9 /   5  20  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  24  41  19 /   0   5  20   0
RED RIVER.......................  48  17  32   9 /   0  10  30   5
TAOS............................  55  27  40  14 /   0   5  20   5
SANTA FE........................  62  29  44  18 /   0   0  20   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  63  31  46  22 /   0   0  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  64  27  48  24 /   0   0  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  39  51  28 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  69  35  52  26 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  38  48  26 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  36  51  25 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  71  40  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  31  44  20 /   0   0  10   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  65  33  46  26 /   0   0  10   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  68  42  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  61  41  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  65  33  48  16 /   0   5  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  65  33  46  16 /   0   5  10   5
ROY.............................  65  35  51  26 /   0   5  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  63  33  50  24 /   0   0  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  70  39  60  30 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  40  59  27 /   0   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  75  40  64  28 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  74  42  66  27 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  75  41  67  27 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  80  45  76  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-105>109.

&&

52/17

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