Freeze Warning 5, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2009

...FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DISCUSS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK...RANGING FROM FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL. THE EFFECTS OF THE LAST STORM ARE SLOWLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CRATER
INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY ALONG THE AZ BORDER. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
OVER THE REGION TO DEPART OR DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COUPLED WITH
POOR TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES TODAY...EXPECT FREEZING CONDITIONS TO BE
A CONCERN FOR MOST AREAS SAVE THE EC/SE PLAINS. HAVE DECIDED TO POST
A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR NMZ518-523 WHERE MOST AREAS WILL APPROACH
28F. MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE ABQ
METRO/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...BUT
SHOULD DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK WITH A COUPLE OF LOCALES NEARING
THE CRITICAL 28F VALUE. WILL POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE ZONES...
BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO MONITOR AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
AT ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

POTENT UPR LEVEL SYSTEM MIGRATING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 500MB
105KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THROUGH SRN CA
AND EVENTUALLY NOSE INTO WRN NM BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AN HOUR OR
TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. UPR LOW
WILL MIGRATE TO JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE TUE. IT
APPEARS ENOUGH FORCING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ZONE WILL ALLOW LIGHT PCPN TO BREAK OUT TUE NIGHT IN
THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST...BRINGING A LINE OF
PCPN FROM WEST-EAST ON WED. IT MAY APPEAR THIS SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK/S SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE ON WHERE
THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL ORIGINATE. LAST WEEK...MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WHILE MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT
STORM WILL ARRIVE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE REGION WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME TOP/DOWN EFFECT TO JUICE
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...PCPN WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AND QPF VALUES WILL BE SQUASHED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH THIS LINEAR BAND OF PCPN ONCE IT REACHES THE ERN PLAINS
AS LI VALUES DROP BELOW ZERO. PLENTY OF SPEED SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE OVER
WEST TX. A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO CHASE THIS
INITIAL BAND OF PCPN...LIKELY ELIMINATING PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-40.

THEREAFTER...UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE NRN MOUNTAINS ON THU
WITH NOTABLY COLDER AIR INFILTRATING THE STATE. MODELS ADVERTISE AN
ILL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY. NONETHELESS...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SNOWS TO ACCUMULATE WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL/NRN NM SIMPLY BASED ON OROGRAPHICS COUPLED WITH HIGH SNOW-
WATER RATIOS. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IN A 4-6TH PERIOD WATCH IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST. MAIN REASONING IS THAT MODELS ARE VERY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS CLOSED LOW AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS FEATURE MAY
EXPERIENCE A SLOWER EJECTION SPEED THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS LATE ON THU...WHICH MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS IN THE NE/EC PLAINS. CURRENT SPS LOOKS
FINE AND WILL FRESHEN UP WORDING TO FINE TUNE LOCALES JUST A TAD.

LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY
DRY AND WARMER FORECAST. DPORTER

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE COULD BE PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 07

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CHILL
EFFICIENTLY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DIMINISHING DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT. THE DEEP COLD TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY
OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. WITH DECENT SUNSHINE AND THERMAL MIXING...
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG NEAR-SURFACE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS BELOW 15F IN THE WEST AND BELOW 25F IN MOST OF THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN 1 TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN NM AND IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE COLD CORE TROUGH ALOFT SLAMS INTO NORTHWEST NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY DRY WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS.

LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WEDNESDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. THE NORTHERN NM
MOUNTAINS COULD GET DECENT AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDENSDAY
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE FOR
THIS STORM TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. 07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  29  63  36  44 /   0   0  40  50
DULCE...........................  20  59  30  39 /   0   0  40  70
CUBA............................  21  60  32  41 /   0   0  30  60
GALLUP..........................  20  63  29  40 /   0   0  40  50
EL MORRO........................  20  62  31  39 /   0   0  40  40
GRANTS..........................  18  66  32  44 /   0   0  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  23  67  37  47 /   0   0  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  30  71  38  55 /   0   0  20  20
CHAMA...........................  18  53  25  36 /   0   5  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  58  33  46 /   0   0  20  40
PECOS...........................  25  57  33  47 /   0   0  10  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  54  25  43 /   0   0  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  18  44  26  32 /   0   0  30  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  17  48  27  36 /   0   0  20  50
TAOS............................  20  55  30  44 /   0   0  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  25  63  36  51 /   0   0  20  40
SANTA FE........................  26  57  34  47 /   0   0  10  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  27  59  36  49 /   0   0  10  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  32  61  41  52 /   0   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  63  42  54 /   0   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  29  64  39  56 /   0   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  32  63  40  54 /   0   0  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  33  66  41  58 /   0   0  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  32  63  40  54 /   0   0  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  30  68  39  59 /   0   0  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  55  39  48 /   0   0  10  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  64  35  51 /   0   0  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  59  31  47 /   0   0   5  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  32  59  39  52 /   0   0   5  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  31  64  38  56 /   0   0   0  40
RUIDOSO.........................  28  58  41  53 /   0   0   0  50
CAPULIN.........................  24  57  34  48 /   0   0  10  40
RATON...........................  21  60  32  52 /   0   0  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  26  61  36  49 /   0   0  10  40
CLAYTON.........................  32  67  36  58 /   0   0   0  30
ROY.............................  30  67  39  53 /   0   0   5  30
CONCHAS.........................  34  71  43  59 /   0   0   5  30
SANTA ROSA......................  34  69  42  57 /   0   0   5  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  35  71  46  64 /   0   0   0  30
CLOVIS..........................  34  71  42  65 /   0   0   0  20
PORTALES........................  32  72  41  67 /   0   0   0  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  35  70  43  64 /   0   0   0  30
ROSWELL.........................  36  74  47  69 /   0   0   0  20
PICACHO.........................  33  72  45  62 /   0   0   0  30
ELK.............................  33  67  45  56 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ518-523.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520-524.

&&

46/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2009

NMZ501>540-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
334 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OR HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED WITHIN PARTS
OF THE SANTE FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREAS...THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. READINGS
SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH MOST AREAS APPROACHING 28 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE METRO AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PLEASE
SEE THE NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STORM MAY BRING
SNOWFALL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG...CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS.

DPORTER

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