Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 080803
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
203 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2009

NMC005-080813-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-091008T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAVES-
203 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3302 10401 3315 10395 3323 10375 3298 10375
      3297 10402

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
945 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2009

.UPDATE...
STRONG JET EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AZ.
VERTICAL ASCENT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED LIKELY POPS FURTHER WEST ACROSS CHAVES AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CURRY COUNTY. THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO COME
IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE EAST. INTENSITY TRENDS
HAVE COME DOWN WITH THESE CELLS BUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AND HAVE LOWERED POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT DID
KEEP SOME IN OVERNIGHT AS A FEW IMPULSES ALOFT MAY ADVANCE ALONG
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS /HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW/ OVERNIGHT. LEFT HIGHEST POPS NEAR I-40 BETWEEN GRANTS AND
GALLUP. ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES MADE AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWER/ISO STORM
ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG JET CORE IN
VICINITY.

UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

KW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2009...
MAIN BAND OF PCPN IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATE 700-500MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS DEPARTED NORTHEAST OF NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A DECK OF LOWER STRATUS STILL
HUGGING TIGHT ALONG THE ERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...SKIES HAVE BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR IS INVADING THE REGION. UPPER LOW PER WATER VAPOR LOOP AS
WELL AS RUC80 ANALYSIS IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE CA/AZ/NV
BORDERS...ALLOWING DEEP SWLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS NM. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NM WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL.
NAM12 SUGGESTS ABOUT 500J/KG OF ENERGY COUPLED WITH A LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -1 TO -3C. EYES SHIFT TO THE SE PLAINS BY MID-EVENING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION.
NAM ALSO SUGGESTS MODERATE 700-500MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS
SAME AREA. MODELS PINPOINT A BAND OF CONVECTION FIRING BETWEEN 02Z
AND 04Z WITHIN A ZONE OF DECENT SHEAR ACROSS SE CHAVES THROUGH SRN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. IT APPEARS STRATUS IS STARTING TO LOSE ITS GRIP
OVER THIS REGION...THUS CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE SE. SPC
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THIS REGION IN A SEE TEXT...INDICATING A 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL UPDATE THE HWO
TO INCLUDE THIS CONCERN. MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST.

SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN TROUGH TIMING AS THE CLOSED
LOW TO OUR WEST WEAKENS. BY 00Z/FRI...NAM HOLDS THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE NRN MOUNTAINS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A
LINE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. NONETHELESS...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BAND OF INSTABILITY WITHIN TROUGH AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO HEDGE WITH
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION AND KEEP HIGHEST POPS IN THE NRN HIGH TERRAIN.
A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER THE FAR NE PLAINS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE PCPN THREAT ALONG THE CO/OK BORDERS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS THUR EVENING...
ALLOWING FOR A QUICK SHOT OF BREEZY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE IN THE NE
AND EC PLAINS. QUIET W/NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL INVADE THE ERN
PLAINS EARLY SAT MORNING. INTRODUCED WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A GAP WIND SATURDAY EVENING. MEXMOS SUGGESTS
A VERY COLD AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY FOR THE CLAYTON AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
MEX DOES NOT SUGGEST FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE FUTURE RUNS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FREEZES WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
SLUE OF FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUN MORNING. DPORTER

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED RATHER WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS BUILT INTO ANY OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS BUT
CERTAINLY COULDN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG AND BLW 1000 FT CIGS AT LVS
SOMETIME TONIGHT. IMPROVING WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA
OF MEASURABLE AND EVEN WETTING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN BORDER AREA WITH COLORADO. SOME DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OVERALL THOUGH...WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

MAIN UPPER LOW OR TROUGH PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WOULD BE RELEGATED TO
THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL MTS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SO A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL OBSERVE A DRYING TREND. THIS WILL BE
DEPICTED IN THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY FORECAST WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A
30 TO 40 PCT DROP. SOME BREEZINESS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS OF WIND ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

WEATHER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL SURGE
SHOULD JUST AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR LOWER HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY. THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING TREND BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
BIGGEST FOCUS AS THE MODELS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD
BREEZINESS...MOST AREAS...DURING THE AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS ON SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THERE. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD FOLLOW
THIS PARTICULAR FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT
FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME FOR THAT EFFECT
BECAUSE THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER FOLLOWING THAT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE AN UPTICK OF WINDS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY. BASICALLY IN THE WAKE OF A BROAD TROUGH PASSAGE. FLOW
GENERALLY WEST/NORTHWEST. MINIMUM HUMIDITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHER
ACROSS THE EAST WITH 20S TO MID 30S.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONTAL SURGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME...THINKING DRIER FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. 50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON......................  40  66  36  68 /  10  10   0   0
DULCE...........................  35  57  28  63 /  20  20   5   0
CUBA............................  38  60  28  62 /  40  20   0   0
GALLUP..........................  35  62  28  68 /  20  10   0   0
EL MORRO........................  37  58  29  66 /  30  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  36  63  28  68 /  20  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  40  63  31  68 /  10  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  46  68  36  74 /  10  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  36  50  29  56 /  30  30  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  61  32  63 /  40  20   5   0
PECOS...........................  41  59  35  65 /  40  20   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38  57  30  59 /  30  30  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  34  48  27  52 /  30  40  10   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  52  28  55 /  30  20  10   0
TAOS............................  38  58  30  60 /  30  30  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  42  66  37  69 /  30  20  10   0
SANTA FE........................  43  61  36  65 /  30  20   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  64  36  67 /  30  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  67  41  70 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  43  71 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  69  36  72 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  68  40  71 /  10  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  70  41  73 /  10   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  67  41  71 /  10  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  71  38  73 /  10   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  60  31  63 /  20  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  64  34  68 /  20  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  43  63  33  64 /  20  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  65  36  68 /  20  10   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  49  69  42  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  61  35  65 /  30  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  42  58  28  63 /  20  40  20   0
RATON...........................  42  60  29  65 /  20  30  20   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  61  32  65 /  30  10  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  48  64  35  63 /  20  20  20   0
ROY.............................  46  62  36  64 /  20  10  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  50  71  39  70 /  20  10  10   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  71  38  71 /  20  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  75  38  72 /  30  10  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  51  75  40  69 /  50  10  10   5
PORTALES........................  52  77  41  70 /  60  10  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  73  40  73 /  20  10   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  53  80  47  77 /  50   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  50  74  43  74 /  20  10   0   0
ELK.............................  47  68  41  68 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2009

NMZ501>540-081200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
247 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW...HOWEVER
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
OF NEW MEXICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR FROM THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DPORTER