Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 060018
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
618 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

NMC006-031-060045-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-090906T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCKINLEY-CIBOLA-
618 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
CIBOLA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTIES...

AT 616 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF GALLUP TO 8 MILES
SOUTH OF GALLUP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RAMAH...
  MCGAFFEY...
  FORT WINGATE...
  EL MORRO...
  COOLIDGE...
  CHURCH ROCK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WAS CONTINUING OVER THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

DO NOT CAMP ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. REMAIN ALERT WHEN HIKING IN
STEEP...NARROW CANYONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 10888 3559 10836 3487 10820 3478 10850
      3513 10888

$$

DPORTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT.  AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING. THE COLLISION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS.

WEAK RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...THOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS
SUGGESTING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.  THIS SHOULD AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
LOW WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE TROUGH AXIS/MOISTURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

BY MONDAY...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF SHOWING VERY DISSIMILAR UPPER
AIR PATTERNS OVER NM. HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT SOME PVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO CROSS NM...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RECYCLED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REORGANIZES OVER THE STATE. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS WESTWARD. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSTMS.  FRONTAL TIMING
DEPICTED HERE RESEMBLES THAT OF THE GFS...AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER. REGARDLESS...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE ACTIVE ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
THE AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA HAS MOVED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN THIRD OF
NM TODAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPOS AT KFMN...KGUP...KABQ...AND KSAF THROUGH AROUND
02Z. WEAK STORM MOTIONS AND MEAGER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS PROVIDES LESS CONFIDENCE AT KLVS HOWEVER
STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE MANAGED TO DRIFT OVER THE SITE. LESS
INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS FAVORS ONLY CB AT KTCC/KROW DUE TO LESS
CERTAINTY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS TO 030 AND VSBYS TO NEAR 3SM WITH A
FEW ISOLD SPOTS EXPERIENCING IFR DIRECTLY BENEATH STORM CELLS. SHRA/
TSRA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WHILE THE WEST MAY
STAY ACTIVE THRU 09Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAS CONTINUED TODAY. BARTLEY RAWS HAS ALREADY PICKED
UP 0.65 INCHES...BRUSHY MT 0.33...COYOTE 0.13...OAK FLATS 0.11...AND
QUEMAZON 0.10. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
OVER THE SW AND WEST CENTRAL MTS...INCLUDING THE CHUSKAS...EAST INTO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. RH RECOVERIES AS A
RESULT WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT WITH DAYTIME RH VALUES
TOMORROW ONLY FALLING INTO THE 30-40 PCT RANGE. HAINES VALUES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 2-3 RANGE AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REORGANIZE OVER TX MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE SHRA/
TSRA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A FOCUS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL/EASTERN
AREAS. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-40 PCT RANGE ALONG
WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES. THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
SLIDE WEST AGAIN ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY ALLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A POOL
OF DRY AIR ASSCD WITH NW FLOW IN THIS PATTERN THEREFORE EXPECT MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DRIER MIN RH VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  84  56  84 /  40  30  30  20
DULCE...........................  47  77  46  77 /  40  50  30  30
CUBA............................  47  76  48  75 /  30  50  30  30
GALLUP..........................  50  78  49  79 /  40  40  30  30
EL MORRO........................  49  75  47  75 /  40  50  30  30
GRANTS..........................  47  78  47  79 /  30  40  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  50  77  51  78 /  30  50  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  56  84  56  84 /  30  40  20  30
CHAMA...........................  43  73  43  74 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  76  50  76 /  30  30  20  30
PECOS...........................  47  77  50  76 /  20  30  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  44  74  45  75 /  30  40  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  39  68  40  69 /  30  60  30  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  38  70  39  69 /  30  60  30  40
TAOS............................  46  77  47  78 /  30  40  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  51  84  50  84 /  20  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  48  80  53  79 /  20  30  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  81  53  81 /  20  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  81  58  81 /  20  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  83  62  82 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  84  59  83 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  83  60  82 /  20  20  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  84  59  83 /  20  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  59  82  61  82 /  20  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  58  83  59  83 /  20  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  74  47  75 /  20  20  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  79  51  81 /  20  20  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  77  52  77 /  20  20  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  54  78  52  79 /  20  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  81  56  81 /  10  20  10  30
RUIDOSO.........................  50  74  51  73 /  10  30  10  30
CAPULIN.........................  48  77  48  78 /  30  30  30  30
RATON...........................  48  81  50  83 /  30  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  47  77  49  79 /  30  30  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  57  86  58  87 /  20  10  10  20
ROY.............................  55  80  56  82 /  20  20  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  59  89  61  89 /  10  10  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  58  85  56  87 /  10  20  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  88  61  88 /  10  10  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  58  84  59  86 /  10  10  10  20
PORTALES........................  59  85  60  87 /  10  10  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  86  60  88 /  10  10  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  60  87  63  88 /  10  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  55  83  56  83 /  10  20  10  20
ELK.............................  49  78  51  77 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34/GUYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
511 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
511 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...A FEW MINUTES OF SMALL
HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DOWNPOURS MAY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES
AND BLOCK LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...A FEW MINUTES OF SMALL HAL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. REPORT HAIL
SIZES...SIGNIFICANT MEASURED WIND GUSTS OR WIND IMPACTS...AND
MEASURED RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT
1.888.386.7637.

SHY