Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Albuquerque, NM

000 
WGUS75 KABQ 221513
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
913 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2009

NMC005-221645-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090722T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAVES-
913 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 859 AM MDT...SKYWARN SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ALONG WALNUT
CREEK SOUTH OF LAKE ARTHUR. AS A RESULT HIGHWAY 2 IS IMPASSABLE DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY. 

EARLIER...REPORTS CAME IN THAT THE RIO FELIX WAS UP TO 10 FEET AND
RISING 3 MILES WEST OF HAGERMAN. LOOK FOR THIS FLOW TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD DOWN THE RIO FELIX TOWARDS THE PECOS RIVER EAST OF 
HAGERMAN.   

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL EAST CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER THAT DISTANT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN TAKE AWHILE TO FLOW
DOWN THE ARROYOS. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS ROADWAYS THAT HAVE WATER
OVER THEM. SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS COULD 
ALSO CAUSE LOSS OF CONTROL WITHIN A VEHICLE. 

&&

LAT...LON 3301 10462 3321 10458 3332 10412 3363 10369
      3338 10371 3339 10376 3297 10376

$$
50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 40 FROM SANTA ROSA EAST TO THE TX/NM
BORDER. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED
TRIGGER THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY YESTERDAY HAS AIDED IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT AT
LEAST THE TYPICAL ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM/LOW WATER CROSSING TYPE
FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH
QPF THIS MORNING. GFS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
THIS MORNING AND THE NAM-WRF INITIALIZING PRECIP TOO FAR NORTH.

FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS QUITE CHALLENGING.
UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CONTINUATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. SOME
LIMITING FACTORS DO EXIST...NAMELY THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE...AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCALES THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CURRENT ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE. FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TODAY LOOKS MORE LOCALIZED THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL HANDLE
LOCALIZED HIGHLIGHTS IN THE HWO.

MODELS CONTINUE TRENDS OF BUILDING THE UPPER HIGH FURTHER EAST
OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
CENTRAL AND WEST AS MOISTURE GETS RECYCLED UNDER THE RIDGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN PLAY ALOGN WITH PERIODIC BACK-DOOR FRONTAL INTRUSIONS.
GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATING A SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH THE HIGH AS
A DEEP TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS POTENTIAL
CHANGE IS ABOUT ONE WEEK AWAY.

IMPORTANT NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY JULY 22ND AT 300 PM MDT...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE WILL ISSUE PUBLIC FORECASTS
AND WARNING PRODUCTS USING NEW ZONE BOUNDARIES. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...
PLEASE REFER TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ/ZONES/2009PUBLICZONES.PHP
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/.

KW

&&

.AVIATION...
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCATTERED AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
RAINFALL. SOME ISOLATED AREAS WILL SEE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER
THE STRONGER STORMS. REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND REDEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SPOTTY AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...THUS TAF SITES WILL BE LESS PRONE TO EXPERIENCE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HEALTHY DEWPOINTS AND A LARGE AREA OF
WETTING RAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE LET EXCELLENT RH
RECOVERY DEVELOP MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE EAST IN POST FRONTAL AND RAIN SOAKED ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIEST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST WITH ONLY
VERY SPARSE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
15 PERCENT WITH WARMER TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY ENTRAINING INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LESS PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS TEMPS
REBOUND AND HUMIDITIES TREND DOWN. CENTRAL TO WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
THEN BE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ISOALTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SOME BY SATURDAY
WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT STILL SLATED TO IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. THEREAFTER THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD AND A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  62  98  63 /  10  20  10  10
GALLUP..........................  88  55  92  57 /  30  20  20  10
GRANTS..........................  85  56  90  56 /  40  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  90  61  94  61 /  20  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  77  50  83  49 /  30  20  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  55  88  55 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  43  77  43 /  30  30  30  10
TAOS............................  80  51  87  52 /  30  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  80  55  88  58 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  83  57  90  59 /  40  20  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  85  52  94  57 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  66  90  69 /  40  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  63  92  64 /  40  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  63  91  63 /  40  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  63  96  66 /  40  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  85  67  91  64 /  40  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  55  84  54 /  40  30  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  54  88  57 /  50  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  80  61  88  63 /  50  40  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  71  55  78  56 /  50  40  30  10
RATON...........................  82  52  90  55 /  30  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  52  85  55 /  50  20  20  10
ROY.............................  75  53  84  62 /  40  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  82  61  91  65 /  40  10  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  81  61  89  61 /  50  30  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  62  93  68 /  50  20  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  78  62  90  67 /  50  40  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  77  60  89  65 /  60  40  20   5
PORTALES........................  78  62  86  67 /  60  40  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  81  65  90  68 /  60  40  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17/52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2009

NMZ001>021-026-222100-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
604 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL INCREASING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
1-888-386-7637 TO REPORT FLOODING.

KW