Fire Weather Watch 21, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS THE THING OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AS A FAIRLY DEEP AND
BLUSTERY UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES JUST A LITTLE N OF NM LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON. IT MEANS MUCH INCREASED WINDS FOR THE STATE AND
BULK OF NEEDED PCPN STAYING TO THE N. SFC WINDS TO GENERALLY RAMP
UP FROM W TO E...AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX ENTERS W NM TOWARD EVE AND
CROSSES NM TONIGHT...EXITING MON AM. SO FAR ITS THIS TIMING OF THE
PEAK WINDSPEEDS ALOFT THAT ALLOW ONLY WIND ADVISORIES TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR NOW. 700 MB WINDS PEAK OUT BETWEEN 50 AND 65 KTS
DEPENDING ON THE MODELS INVOLVED. BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH GRADE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 8 AND 14
MIDDAY TO MIDNIGHT...LOW GRADE FOR ZONES 9 AND 15 MID AFTN TO
MIDNIGHT...AND CENTRAL MT ZONES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE E FM 21Z THROUGH MON AFTN. DUE TO LATER ONSET FOR ZONES
FARTHER TO E...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF HOISTING FOR THOSE ZONES IN
THIS PACKAGE. AS FOR PCPN...STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME SUB ADVISORY
SNOWFALL FOR N MTNS TONIGHT INTO MON AND KEPT LOW POPS IN FAR E
CENTRAL AND SE FOR STORMS...THOUGH SHAVED THE LATTER A BIT. LOW
POPS STILL FLIRT WITH N ZONES INTO TUE...BUT OTHERWISE A SOMEWHAT
QUIETER AND LESS WINDY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART TIL LATE IN THE
WEEK WHEN MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER TROUGH ENTERING NM FM THE
NW. IF IT PANS OUT WILL BRING NEEDED MOISTURE TO GOOD PORTION OF
NM...BUT TIME AND LATER MODEL RUNS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THIS IS A
FALSE ALARM OR NOT.

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&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
NM BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. WINDS OF 25 TO 35KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 45KTS WILL BE COMMON IN THE WEST WITH GRADUALLY LIGHTER
SPEEDS EASTWARD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN THE NW AFTER 00Z...WITH PCPN DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 03-06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NM AS A RELATIVELY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MIGRATES TOWARDS THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE STATE. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z TO 21Z RESPECTIVELY. IT
APPEARS THIS WILL AID IN AFTERNOON MIXING AND ALLOW FOR STRONG WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE STATE. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...CREATING POOR MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WHICH MAY DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT A FEW LOCALES. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL UPGRADE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND INCLUDE NMZ104-105-108.
THIS JIVES WELL WITH THE LATEST DAY ONE SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTY WINDS AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND LEE
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NRN AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES.

WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL DESCEND TO THE SURFACE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS REGION...
EFFECTIVE FROM 17Z THROUGH 03Z.

THE MID-WEEK PERIOD LOOKS QUIET AND LESS WINDY. LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE NOW SUGGESTING A WINTER-TYPE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  71  37  54  28 /   5  30  10   5
GALLUP..........................  67  30  50  20 /   5  20   0   0
GRANTS..........................  72  32  52  23 /   0  10   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  75  33  64  29 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  61  28  44  20 /   5  40  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  63  36  48  29 /   0  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  59  26  41  18 /  10  30  30  10
TAOS............................  66  34  52  26 /   0  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  68  34  52  26 /   0  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  36  54  28 /   0   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  72  33  58  26 /   0  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  73  43  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  75  40  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  41  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  74  41  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  43  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  64  33  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  72  37  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  79  41  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  69  40  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  73  32  59  24 /   0  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  69  37  56  25 /   0   5   0   5
ROY.............................  72  40  61  31 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  76  43  66  30 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  78  45  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  80  47  71  34 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  81  46  71  35 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  79  47  71  37 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  80  48  73  35 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  81  49  76  40 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ004-005-010-011-016-017-026.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ009-015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ008-014.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
835 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2009

NMZ001>021-026-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
835 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH.

ON MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH 25 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 OR 60 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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