Tornado Warning 18, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
145 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2008

.UPDATE...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCD SFC TROF HAS PUSHED THRU WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NW AND MORE STABILITY.
BIGGEST FCST CONCERN WILL BE SVR TSTM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...PRIMARILY ACRS CENTRAL SD.

TONIGHT...18Z KUNR SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAN ANY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION
WOULD LIKE BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. MLCAPES
IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG COMBINED WITH MODEST SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SVR
STORMS...BUT QUESTION REMAINS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND HOW
MANY STORMS WILL BE ABLE INITIATE. MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WOULD THEN
DECREASE OR END BY MIDNIGHT.

TUE...SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW A RETURN OF
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR INTO NERN WY AND PART OF WRN SD. A SHORT WAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS IN THE AFTN AND AID IN TSTM
INITIATION. DRIER AIR AND MINIMAL STABILITY SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA
FROM NWRN SD THRU CNTRL SD DRY.

WED...MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS SFC TROF MOVE THRU. TEMPS COULD
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S WITH THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. AS OF
LATE...GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED 3-6F DEGREES TOO WARM GIVEN
SFC/LOW LVL MOISTURE WHILE FWC MOS HAS DONE VERY WELL. WILL STICK
CLOSER TO LOWER END OF GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

JOHNSON/SCHILD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
501 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2008

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-291300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
501 AM MDT (601 AM CDT) MON JUL 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SADTURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS ON TUESDAY.  WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.