Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
745 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.UPDATE...STORM MOVING ACROSS HARDING COUNTY HAS PRODUCED ESTIMATED
70 MPH WINDS SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SVR WATCH TO INCLUDE PERKINS
COUNTY. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER THE WRN
HALF OF ZONES THIS EVENING...AND ON THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH SCT TO LIKELY POPS WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT)...CURRENT SURFACE MAP
SHOWS WEAK LOW ACROSS WYOMING WITH INVERTED TROF INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF BLACK
HILLS...BIG HORNS...AND LARAMIE MTNS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS PLUME
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROF THAT
IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS...MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH WEAK CAP. AS FORCING INCREASES
WITH APPROACHING TROF...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. HAIL/WIND WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. LOW LEVEL
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR TORNADOES. FORECAST SUPERCELL MOTION IS 10
KNOTS OR LESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER ONE INCH AND POSSIBLE SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

12Z NAM/GFS BRING SHORTWAVE/MCS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING SHOULD LIMIT ANY
CONVECTION TO BLACK HILLS/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE TEMPS
MAY REACH THE CENTURY MARK. AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1012 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-071300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1012 AM MDT (1112 AM CDT) SUN JUL 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM LEMMON TO PINE RIDGE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
718 PM MDT SUN JUL 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             12 SE WRIGHT            43.63N 105.33W
07/06/2008  E0.88 INCH       CAMPBELL           WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL ACCUMULATED 6 INCHES DEEP IN DITCHES

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
730 PM MDT SUN JUL 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE HARDING            45.36N 103.79W
07/06/2008  E70 MPH          HARDING            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
808 PM MDT SUN JUL 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 E REDIG               45.27N 103.40W
07/06/2008  E60 MPH          HARDING            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
813 PM MDT SUN JUL 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 NE REDIG             45.38N 103.37W
07/06/2008  E70 MPH          HARDING            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GREATER THAN 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

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