Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE AUG 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME HEATING DELAY BUT NOT LIKE YESTERDAY AS
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERED WITH A MORE RESPONSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.7 ON THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING
AND SURFACE DEWPTS SOLIDLY INTO THE 60S MORNING HOURS HOLDING UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH NO PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE PROBABLY
NOT THE BEST WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND VERY LITTLE STEERING LEVEL
FLOW...BUT MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. HEAVY RAIN THE CONCERN WHERE
THEY DO FORM AND HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED. WEAK FLOW BELOW H5...BUT
FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY ABOVE THIS UNDER THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY FEED IMPULSES INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF
EASTERLY WAVES...BUT THERE IS ALSO SOME DRIER AIR UPSTREAM IN
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS MOST OF CHIHUAHUA.

AFTER INITIAL SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AGAIN EARLY TODAY...THIS EVENING
COULD BE A FEATURED TIME FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE
PAST 36 HOURS. ALSO...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME
FOCUS FROM PROXIMITY OF INVERTED TROUGH AND DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE AUG 5 2008

AZZ019-029>035-060700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
250 PM MST TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTER A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST INTO THE VALLEYS AND
DESERTS THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT AND THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW OF THESE STORMS...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM...BUT A FEW COULD LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY
AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT SPREADS WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON