Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 040102
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
602 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZC003-040111-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080804T0100Z/
COCHISE AZ-
601 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA BUT THE THREAT OF 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL HAD DIMINISH. 

HOWEVER...THE CONCERN FOR PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTY ROADWAYS AND 
ELEVATED FLOWS IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT 730 
PM MST. 


LAT...LON 3155 10974 3213 10976 3218 10906 3153 10906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 079DEG 4KT 3165 10961

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW WILL BRING A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-55 DBZ ECHOES
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTH-CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
SOUTH OF WILLCOX. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT
THIS TIME. MSAS SURFACE LI/S VALID 03/20Z WERE NEAR ZERO TUCSON
VICINITY WWD WITH MINUS 6 LI/S NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE DEEP MOISTURE REGIME ACROSS SRN AZ/SONORA/CHIHUAHUA REGION.
03/12Z GFS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO INDICATED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT ACROSS SE AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z NAM WAS NOT AS ROBUST WITH POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD EVENT VERSUS THE NAM.

AT ANY RATE...WILL OPT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP DECREASING
SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. DID INCREASE INHERITED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD PARTICULARLY TUCSON VICINITY WWD WITH NOTION THAT MCS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE WWD AND DECAY BY MON
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA MON TO JUSTIFY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...03/12Z GFS DEPICTED MID-LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR STARTING
TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THUR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO
REFLECT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD PRECIP TREND DURING THAT PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THAT SCENARIO MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE UPSHOT IS THAT
MOISTURE AND FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE DAILY CYCLE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SE AZ INTO MONDAY. CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 6-8K FT AGL WITH
LOWER CEILINGS VICINITY TSRA. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
500 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZZ029-032>035-040930-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
500 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME ALREADY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING IN PARTS OF COCHISE COUNTY AND EARLIER AROUND SAFFORD.

THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING...IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PINAL AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
440 PM MST SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
08/03/2008                   GRAHAM             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TREE HAD FALLEN ON CAR IN
            SAFFORD. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH. POWER OUTAGES
            REPORTED.

&&

BTURNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
442 PM MST SUN AUG 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
08/03/2008                   GRAHAM             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER
            CHOLLA STREET.

&&

BTURNER