Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 25, 2008Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 25, 2008, 2:15 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 25, 2008, 2:15 PM MST (21:15 UTC)
Expired: Jul 25, 2008, 2:45 PM MST
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 25, 2:44 PM MST	HAIL 0.75	Tombstone, AZ	TOMBSTONE POLICE DEPARTMENT ESTIMATED PENNY-SIZED HAIL AT 244 PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 705 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1555 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTWC 252115
SVRTWC
AZC003-252145-
/O.NEW.KTWC.SV.W.0056.080725T2115Z-080725T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 245 PM MST

* AT 207 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  TOMBSTONE...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIERRA VISTA...AND MOVING
  NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  9 MILES EAST OF SAINT DAVID BY 245 PM MST...

LAT...LON 3186 11027 3207 11028 3218 11013 3221 11004
      3217 10995 3203 10989 3194 10983 3184 10981
      3158 10993 3156 11010 3160 11025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 177DEG 21KT 3172 11006

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 252133
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

AZC003-252145-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-080725T2145Z/
COCHISE AZ-
232 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 224 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TOMBSTONE...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIERRA VISTA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT
DAVID...I-10 AND TEXAS CANYON AND DRAGOON

LAT...LON 3186 11027 3207 11028 3218 11013 3221 11004
      3217 10995 3203 10989 3194 10983 3184 10981
      3158 10993 3156 11010 3160 11025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 177DEG 21KT 3182 11007

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 252150
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

AZC003-252159-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-080725T2145Z/
COCHISE AZ-
249 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 248 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF TOMBSTONE HAD WEAKENED. 
THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3186 11027 3207 11028 3218 11013 3221 11004
      3217 10995 3203 10989 3194 10983 3184 10981
      3158 10993 3156 11010 3160 11025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 177DEG 21KT 3183 11007

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 25, 1:55 PM MST, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 25, 1:55 PM MST, 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MORE NORMAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES
ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AT 2050Z. THE
REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST SECTIONS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AS PER SWODY1 A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT...MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA POP FIELDS. WITHOUT RESTATING EACH MODEL SOLUTION...APPEARS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD
AND SWD STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. HAVE ISSUED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING THRU SUN
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SE AZ EXCEPT FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY/PUBLIC ZONE
31. AT THIS TIME APPEARS MAJORITY OF SE AZ WILL RECEIVE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
LOCALIZED 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

DECREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTING MON...THOUGH THIS NOTION NOT
NECESSARILY SUPPORTED VIA 25/12Z GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER BELIEVE
DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST BY TUE. AT ANY
RATE...STILL APPEARS 25/12Z GFSX MOS GUIDANCE POP VALUES ARE TOO LOW
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR POPS CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES. COOLER SAT DUE
TO INCREASED-MOISTURE SCENARIO...AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MON ABOUT 10
DEGS OR SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE LATE JULY. SOME WARMING DURING
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING WITH 5-8K FT AGL
CEILINGS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO NEAR 1 MILE. BRIEF GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KTS VICINITY STRONGEST STORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
TSRA/SHRA AFTER 26/07Z AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. HIGHER TERRAIN
LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
      FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
      AZZ019-029-030-032>035.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 25, 1:27 PM MST, 48 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
127 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-261400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
127 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLLY APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THESE REMNANTS WILL NOT AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THESE
REMNANTS WILL AID IN SATURATING THE GROUND. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOOD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DOLLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
DAY OR NIGHT...ALONG WITH RAINFALL RATES WELL OVER ONE INCH PER
HOUR. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 25, 10:42 AM MST, 3 hours 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1042 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ESE TUCSON            32.19N 110.80W
07/24/2008                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF HOME NEAR 22ND AND CAMINO SECO.
            TIME APPROXIMATE.

&&

PYTLAK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 24, 5:19 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	26 min
Jul 24, 5:44 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Graham	31 min
Jul 24, 6:43 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	47 min
Jul 24, 6:56 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pinal	34 min
Jul 24, 7:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	64 min
Jul 24, 8:58 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	36 min
Jul 25, 1:06 PM MST	Flash Flood Watch	TWC		32 hr
Jul 25, 2:54 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Jul 25, 3:45 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.