Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Tucson, AZ

August 28, 2008Pima County, Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 2008, 9:33 PM MST for Pima County, Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 28, 2008, 9:33 PM MST (04:33 UTC)
Expired: Aug 28, 2008, 10:15 PM MST
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2017 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -137 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1808 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTWC 290433
SVRTWC
AZC019-021-290515-
/O.NEW.KTWC.SV.W.0116.080829T0433Z-080829T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
933 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 1015 PM MST

* AT 930 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE      
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THE LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED 20      
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELOY...OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASA            
  GRANDE...AND MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANTA
  ROSA...VENTANA...NORTH KOMELIK AND HICKIWAN.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. BE PREPARED
FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

LAT...LON 3252 11259 3252 11222 3268 11222 3268 11216
      3272 11215 3272 11205 3277 11205 3277 11188
      3279 11187 3279 11178 3272 11178 3274 11167
      3286 11147 3245 11144 3228 11180 3205 11261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 072DEG 37KT 3261 11194

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 8:23 PM MST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 8:23 PM MST, 1 hour 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SONORA
WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND FURTHER ENHANCE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AND PUSH MUCH OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED AND LONG LIVED STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE
PARTS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING. SEVERAL OF
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THEM. EXPECT THE REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED TO
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOR STORM REPORTS FROM THIS EVENING...REFER TO
AWIPS PRODUCT HEADER PHXLSRTWC OR WMO HEADER NWUS55. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE FORECAST THINKING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA INTO THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. CLOUD
DECKS GENERALLY 6-9K FT AGL THOUGH CEILINGS AROUND 3-5K FT AGL AND
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1-3SM VICINITY STRONGEST TSRA. SURFACE WINDS
NWLY/NLY 5-15 KTS...THEN MAINLY ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS AFTER 03Z AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...OVERALL SITUATION MAY BE PRETTY SIMILAR FRI AS
THE UPPER LOW SPINS UP TO OUR S AND THE UPPER HIGH BRIEFLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE 4 CORNERS. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN FIGHT DEBRIS
CLOUDS...BUT WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND. HAVE KEPT POPS RIGHT WHERE THEY ARE DESPITE MOS
SUGGESTIONS TO LOWER THEM A NOTCH.

IN MANY WAYS...THIS FORECAST LOOKS TYPICAL FOR A LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
THE MONSOON IS GETTING LONG IN THE TOOTH...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND...THE TROPICAL E PAC FAIRLY ACTIVE...AND THE POLAR
JET STREAM STARTING TO GET MORE ENERGETIC...STRONGER DYNAMICS ARE
COMING INTO PLAY. BOTH SAT AND SUN NOW LOOK ACTIVE...BUT SUN COULD
BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN AS A TYPE-IV /TRANSITIONAL/ SEVERE WEATHER
PATTERN TRIES TO SET UP. THE INVERTED TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO OUR S
COULD ALSO BE TROUBLE IN THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT SAMPLE IT VERY
WELL...AND IF A NICE DEFORMATION AXIS DEVELOPS...WE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE ON THE NORTH FLANK...RESULTING IN BOTH DAYTIME AND NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. I THOUGHT ABOUT TAKING POPS UP EVEN HIGHER...BUT AT
LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL NEED DAYTIME HEATING TO GET GOING...AND I
DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR HOW MUCH WE WILL HAVE ON EITHER DAY. OUR
LOW LEVEL FLOW SAT MORNING WILL ALSO BECOMES RATHER GUSTY OUT OF THE
E...WHICH MEANS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPING TO WORK
AGAINST. HAVE ONLY RAISED POPS ABOUT 5 PCT SAT AND 10 PCT SUN...WITH
LATER SHIFTS POSSIBLY ADJUSTING THOSE UPWARD ONCE WE HAVE A FEW MORE
DETAILS. WILL FRESHEN UP THE HWO TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEEKEND...WITH
BOTH SEVERE TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN. THE NICE THING ABOUT
TRANSITIONAL PATTERNS IS THAT THEY USUALLY GIVE US A PRETTY CLEAN
BREAK IN THE MONSOON...AND THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE SUCH
BREAKS ARE MORE EMPHATIC. I AM A LITTLE CAUTIOUS ABOUT CALLING FOR A
COMPLETE SHUTDOWN JUST YET AS THIS INCOMING TROUGH IS NOT
PARTICULARLY DEEP.. WHICH MEANS EVEN IF THE MONSOON FLOW IS SHUNTED
SE OF US...IT MAY NOT SHUNT VERY FAR AWAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO
EARLY SEP CLIMO AT DAYS 5-7 AND WARMED TEMPS BACK UP TO CLIMO FOR
NOW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...PYTLAK
AVIATION...BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 28, 2:52 PM MST, 6 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-291200-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
252 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER COCHISE AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
AFTER STRUGGLING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. AT
LEAST A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL DROP SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH
ACROSS GRAHAM...PINAL AND PIMA COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BECAUSE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...
AND RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THERE IS A RISK THAT THESE
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR SHORT LINES. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...WITH A COUPLE POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM WILLCOX TO GREEN VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER SONORA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT WILL RESULT IN A
MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...BUT THAT WILL ONLY BRING MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LABOR DAY COULD
BE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-291200-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
252 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY.
HOWEVER...NEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE AREA...AND
AT LEAST SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PIMA COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD RENEW SOME OF
THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE DAY. VAMORI WASH IN THE
SOUTHERN TOHONO OODHAM NATION WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
RAPID RISES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER SONORA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE GREAT BASIN. THAT WILL RESULT IN A
MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...BUT THAT WILL ONLY BRING MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THUS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LABOR DAY COULD
BE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:20 PM MST, 3 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
620 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAFFORD                 32.83N 109.70W
08/28/2008                   GRAHAM             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTERS AND SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED MULTIPLE
            POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN SAFFORD AND THATCHER.

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:46 PM MST, 2 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
646 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             ORO VALLEY              32.42N 110.96W
08/28/2008  E0.75 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT FIRST AND ORACLE

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:47 PM MST, 2 hours 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
647 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW ORO VALLEY        32.45N 110.98W
08/28/2008                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED SEVERAL 3 INCH DIAMETER TREES
            BLOWN DOWN IN ORO VALLEY

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 7:06 PM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
706 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE ORO VALLEY         32.48N 110.89W
08/28/2008                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A 30 FOOT CHAINLINK FENCE SET IN
            CONCRETE BLOWN OVER IN CATALINA.

&&

BTURNER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 8:13 PM MST, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
813 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORO VALLEY              32.42N 110.96W
08/28/2008                   PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2 LARGE MESQUITE TREES DOWN

&&

RASMUSSEN

Local storm report, Aug 28, 8:50 PM MST, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             10 SSE TUCSON           32.10N 110.88W
08/28/2008  M0.75 INCH       PIMA               AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OCCURRED AT THE RITA RANCH HOUSING AREA.

&&

HHANSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 28, 5:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Graham, Greenlee	38 min
Aug 28, 5:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	38 min
Aug 28, 6:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Graham	45 min
Aug 28, 6:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	30 min
Aug 28, 6:26 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	49 min
Aug 28, 6:31 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	119 min
Aug 28, 6:43 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	32 min
Aug 28, 6:59 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Graham	46 min
Aug 28, 7:42 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima	48 min
Aug 28, 8:01 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	44 min
Aug 28, 8:25 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Pima, Santa Cruz	50 min
Aug 28, 8:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	38 min
Aug 28, 9:24 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	51 min
Aug 28, 10:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.