Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KTWC 160159
RFWTWC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
659 PM MST SAT MAR 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

.WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW RED FLAG 
CRITERIA SINCE SUNSET THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO RECOVER THIS EVENING FROM LOW READINGS OF BELOW
15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DUE TO IMPROVING HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND WIND SPEEDS...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

AZZ146-148-160300-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080316T0300Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-GRAHAM COUNTY NORTH OF GILA RIVER-
APACHE NF/SAN CARLOS BIA/SDC-ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148
GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF GILA RIVER-TUCSON/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ-COCHISE COUNTY-CORONADO NF/
SAFFORD BLM/TDC-
659 PM MST SAT MAR 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW RED FLAG 
CRITERIA SINCE SUNSET THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO RECOVER THIS EVENING FROM LOW READINGS OF BELOW
15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...DUE TO IMPROVING HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND WIND SPEEDS...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALONG WITH A BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOON. A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. DRY AND MUCH WARMER
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE
AREA UNDERGOES TEMPERATURE SHOCK SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH READINGS
BOTH OF THESE DAYS 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER VERSUS READINGS OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS
AS THEY ONCE AGAIN WILL BE GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY THUS
WILL NOT NEED A WIND ADVISORY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SUNDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE MOVING ON EAST TUESDAY.

FOR SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 15 TO 25 DEGREES
COLDER VERSUS TODAY. STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTS OF COCHISE
COUNTY WILL BE HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH VALUES NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO PONDER IF A WIND ADVISORY IS
NECESSARY.

MAIN IMPACT TIME FRAME FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY CONVECTIVE WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD -30C 500 MB TEMPERATURES. SO CANT RULE OUT SOME
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING TO THE VALLEY FLOOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
OF THIS EVENT...PREDICTING AN AMOUNT AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS IS
VERY DIFFICULT.

SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING EAST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS FAST AS THE TEMPERATURE PLUMMETS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THEY
WILL REBOUND PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TODAY TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY. RH VALUES
TODAY SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. SO HAVE
UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 146 AND 148 WITH TIME FRAME BEING FROM 12 NOON TO 8 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
BE AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN WEATHER IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL
SITES TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WIND SPEEDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SWLY/WLY 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING TODAY 12 NOON TO 8 PM FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
     146 AND 148.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
549 AM MST SAT MAR 15 2008

AZZ019-030-033>035-160300-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
549 AM MST SAT MAR 15 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS
WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST TODAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY...IT WILL
RESULT IN YET ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...WITH
SUSTAINED 20-FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DIPPING INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE...AND A HIGH TO VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER RATING HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
7000 FEET.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE STRONG AND COLD WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.