Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KTWC 052131
RFWTWC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
231 PM MST MON MAY 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... AND A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
RATING...

AZZ148-060200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080506T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148
GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF GILA RIVER-TUCSON/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ-COCHISE COUNTY-CORONADO NF/
SAFFORD BLM/TDC-
231 PM MST MON MAY 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST WILL TURN INLAND
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
RATING HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148 UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD
OF THE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

$$

000 
WWUS85 KTWC 060155
RFWTWC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
655 PM MST MON MAY 5 2008

AZZ148-060300-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080506T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148
GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF GILA RIVER-TUCSON/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ-COCHISE COUNTY-CORONADO NF/
SAFFORD BLM/TDC-
655 PM MST MON MAY 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. 

ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED 20-FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...
THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 AM MST MON MAY 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE NORTHERN
BAJA COAST TODAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEST OF KLAX AT
THIS TIME CONTINUING TO MOVE SWD. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED
VICINITY 30N/120W MIDDAY TODAY. FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TONIGHT.

THEREAFTER...05/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO THE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND HEIGHTS TONIGHT AND TUE. VERY PRONOUNCED
HEIGHT FALLS...DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION...STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...AND PROGGED LI/S LOWERING TO AROUND MINUS 2 JUSTIFY MENTION
AND DEPICTION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION EWD TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING. POPS
LESS THAN 10 PCT ACROSS FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY TUE APPEARS REASONABLE.
PER COORD WITH WFO PSR...SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE POTENT WIND GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TUCSON AND PHOENIX FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST TUE AFTERNOON.

SYSTEM PROGGED TO EJECT QUICKLY EWD TUE NIGHT AND BE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE WED. WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ERN SECTIONS LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WED AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SE AZ. ZONAL FLOW THUR THEN SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE THUR NIGHT AND FRI AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY. GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED
TO BRING CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEXT WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TODAY REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY. ABOUT 10 DEGS OR SO COOLER TUE DUE TO INFLUENCE OF UPPER
SYSTEM. WARMER WED AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CONTINUED WARMING INTO THUR. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED DURING THE FRI-SUN PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY. THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONE 148. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO
THE PRODUCT PHXRFWTWC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ANY
CLOUDS OF SIGNIFICANCE REMAINING ABOVE 15K FT AGL. LIGHT SLY/SELY
SURFACE WINDS UNTIL 16Z...THEN SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SLY 15-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 06/04Z. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ISOLATED TSRA TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY
BE REDUCED TO 1SM OR LESS IN BLDU ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS-KPHX. RAPIDLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 07/06Z AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT
      FIRE ZONE 148 FROM 11 AM - 7 PM MST.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON