Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KTWC 020105
RFWTWC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
605 PM MST TUE JAN 1 2008

AZZ148-020215-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080102T0100Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148
GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF GILA RIVER-TUCSON/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ-COCHISE COUNTY-CORONADO NF/
SAFFORD BLM/TDC-
605 PM MST TUE JAN 1 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148 EXPIRED AT 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA...
WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE INCREASING ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1020 AM MST TUE JAN 1 2008

ADDED FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR NERN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME...WHILE SCT-BKN
MAINLY CIRROFORM CLOUDS WERE ELSEWHERE. ELY/SELY SURFACE WINDS WERE
PREVALENT AREAWIDE...AND PARTICULARLY VICINITY KTUS/KDUG WHERE GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS WERE OBSERVED AT 16Z. VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WITH
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z IN THE SINGLE DIGITS-LOWER TEENS...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5-15 DEGS LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS
VALID 16Z WERE ABOUT 5-15 DEGS HIGHER VERSUS THIS TIME MON.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH N-S RIDGE AXIS FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA-CALIFORNIA. UPPER LOW WAS WEST OF BAJA CENTERED VICINITY
27N/122W. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL SPREAD
NEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
APPEARS SURFACE WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. INHERITED FORECASTS
INDICATE BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON RECEIPT OF 01/12Z
NAM/NGM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

GRADIENT PROGGED TO LOOSEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT TIGHTEN AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. FOR NOW BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. GENERALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WED AS BULK OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUFFICIENT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
WED THOUGH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION BELOW FOR EXTENDED FORECAST DETAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS
PRODUCED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE AZ. AS
RH VALUES FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. AT CURRENT...DO NOT
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...MONITORING
SITUATION VERY CLOSELY AND NOT RULING OUT HAVING TO ISSUE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING. CURRENT READINGS FROM ASOS AND RAWS STATIONS
INDICATE THAT FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148...CONSISTING OF EASTERN
PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...AND GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF THE GILA
RIVER...SEEMS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND THIS AREA IS
ESPECIALLY BEING MONITORED. CREWS IN THE FIELD ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER AFTER 5 PM MST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE TODAY WITH BASES
AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 12-25 KTS THE REST OF TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PATTERN CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE STALLS OVER
EASTERN STATES AND A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES CARVE A MEAN TROUGH
POSITION THROUGH THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT
MORE LIKELY THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY PERIOD AS TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY LOOKS RIGHT NOW. INITIALLY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESSES STILL...SO NOT MUCH SNOW
CONCERN...BUT THE SITUATION WILL BECOME RATHER COOLER BY LATER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND IF WE STILL HAVE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SNOW
LEVELS COULD BECOME A CONCERN. STILL COULD END UP WITH NOTABLE STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION VALUES BEFORE IT IS OVER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON