Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 252255
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

AZC019-260015-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-080826T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-
355 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MST FOR 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION...

AT 345 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING HEAVY 
RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION. 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL GENERATE FLOODING 
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SELLS ALONG HIGHWAY 86.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF WASHES 
AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS ROADS AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW 
LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3215 11226 3251 11217 3249 11174 3183 11152
      3173 11189

$$

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME SLIGHT DRYING WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUSY AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA
CRUZ/PIMA/SE PINAL COUNTIES WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF A GULF SURGE FROM TS JULIO WHICH IS NOW IN
THE NORTH/CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW BETWEEN THE MID LEVEL
HIGH OVER COLORADO/UTAH AND TS JULIO TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH INTO THIS
EVENING. THESE SOMEWHAT SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE WILL RAISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN LOCAL AREAS IN THE TUCSON AREA WITH JUST UNDER AN INCH
PER HOUR.

THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS QUITE COMPLEX AS WE
HAVE SEVERAL FEATURES TO DEAL WITH. FIRST...TS JULIO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN PER THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST. WE EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO REMAIN LEFT
BEHIND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY SHEARING TO OUR SOUTH OVER SONORA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
PUSH EAST INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER GULF
SURGE IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS WELL WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WE DO
EXPECT THERE TO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WHICH ORDINARILY WOULD
TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS A
RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE JULIO LEFTOVERS THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULDNT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT AS NORMAL. THERE
IS ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SONORA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS THROUGH TOMORROW AS
WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL ALSO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING AS THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED. MUCH OF
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WE GET WORKED OVER
THROUGH TUESDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND LOCATION
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED AN HWO TO HIGHLIGHT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING TO
OUR NORTH LATER THIS WEEK. WE COULD SEE A BIT OF DRYING ALOFT COME
IN FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT SLIGHTLY LATER THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND WITH
INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMUP TO END THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1247 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

AZZ019-030-035-261200-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1247 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AREA
EXPERIENCES THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO SPINNING OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FROM RUNOFF IN TO THE
SOUTH TO NORTH FLOWING STREAMS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IMPROVING WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-031>034-261200-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-
1247 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THE AREA
REMAINED WELL NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...ENOUGH MOISTURE HAD ALREADY
MOVED IN TO THE AREA TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AND AS WELL AS MORE PROLONGED URBAN STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE AFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH RAINFALL OFF AND ON DURING
THE PERIOD. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
STREAM AND WASH FLOODING THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PERSONS IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE AFFECTS OF DISSIPATING TROPICAL SYSTEM JULIO DIMINISH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON