Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 152037
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZC003-152215-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080815T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
137 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 229 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL...MOVING SOUTH AT 6 MPH. 

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE 
FALLEN OVER MONTEZUMA ROAD IN AN AREA THAT IS FOUR TO SIX MILES WEST 
OF THE CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL HEADQUARTERS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3134 11045 3141 11045 3140 11020 3133 11019

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 152111
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
211 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZC003-152215-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080815T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
211 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 303 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN 
ON MONTEZUMA ROAD IN AN AREA FOUR TO SIX MILES WEST OF THE CORONADO 
NATIONAL MEMORIAL HEADQUARTERS. HEAVY FLOW IN WASHES DRAINING 
SOUTHERN HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3134 11045 3141 11045 3140 11020 3133 11019

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 152150
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZC003-152158-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080815T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COCHISE AZ-
250 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS OVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT 
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 4 PM.

LAT...LON 3134 11045 3141 11045 3140 11020 3133 11019

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING STRATUS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS HAS
DISSIPATED WITH A FEW CU OVER THE PEAKS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...A
CIRRUS DECK HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA DUE TO CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH OUT OF
WYOMING IS BUMPING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AND FORCING IT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS IT DOES SO A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE.

AS FOR TODAY...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ON THE 12Z TUCSON
SOUNDING INDICATES 1.65 INCHES WHICH AGREES WITH GOES DATA. ALSO A
MID-LEVEL CAP HAS DEVELOPED PRODUCING A MODIFIED SOUNDING CIN OF 15.
ONCE THE WEAK CIN IS OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1100.
HOWEVER...THE CONVERGENCE ALOFT MAY SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION
LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF STORMS. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUD BASES AT
OR ABOVE 6K FT AGL. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS OF 5-15 KTS
EXPECTED...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD TREK TODAY AND THEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER COLORADO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
STILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE LOCALLY FOR A PRETTY STANDARD MONSOON
FORECAST SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO SLOWLY THIN OUT
AS DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF SUNDAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL ALSO INCREASE DYNAMICS AND KEEP THE
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME DIFFERENCES BY LATE
NEXT WEEK REGARDING TROUGHING ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH TROUGHING WELL TO OUR WEST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-160700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MIXES WITH THE DAYS
HEATING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.
THEREFORE ...GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH...LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-032-160700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
1218 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MIXES WITH THE DAYS HEATING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.
THEREFORE ...GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH...LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON