Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 040010
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
510 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZC009-040130-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-080804T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
510 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 500 PM MST...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE 
OVER CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT 
FROM 1.00 TO 3.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE 2 HOURS. 
WASHES AND STREAMS OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL LIKELY 
FLOOD...ESPECIALLY THE COTTONWOOD AND ASH WASHES FLOWING THROUGH 
PIMA AND NEAR THATCHER. WASHES ALONG ROUTE 191 BETWEEN SAFFORD AND 
JUNCTION OF THE HIGHWAY WILL LIKELY BE FLOODED WITH LOW WATER 
CROSSINGS IMPASSABLE.

A SIGNIFICANT FLOW OF WATER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SAN SIMON 
WASH NEAR SOLOMON.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAFFORD

LAT...LON 3296 10993 3290 10972 3275 10927 3253 10929
      3249 10953 3252 10973 3278 10993

$$

CS

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 040128
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
628 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

AZC009-040136-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-080804T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
628 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM MST FOR CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTY...

THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE WEAKENED. 
HOWEVER...DRAINAGE FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 
STREAMS AND WASHES FLOWING.

LAT...LON 3296 10993 3290 10972 3275 10927 3253 10929
      3249 10953 3252 10973 3278 10993

$$

CS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 PM MST SUN AUG 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW WILL BRING A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-55 DBZ ECHOES
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTH-CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY
SOUTH OF WILLCOX. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT
THIS TIME. MSAS SURFACE LI/S VALID 03/20Z WERE NEAR ZERO TUCSON
VICINITY WWD WITH MINUS 6 LI/S NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURES IN
THE DEEP MOISTURE REGIME ACROSS SRN AZ/SONORA/CHIHUAHUA REGION.
03/12Z GFS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO INDICATED
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT ACROSS SE AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z NAM WAS NOT AS ROBUST WITH POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD EVENT VERSUS THE NAM.

AT ANY RATE...WILL OPT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP DECREASING
SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT. DID INCREASE INHERITED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD PARTICULARLY TUCSON VICINITY WWD WITH NOTION THAT MCS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE WWD AND DECAY BY MON
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA MON TO JUSTIFY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREAFTER...03/12Z GFS DEPICTED MID-LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR STARTING
TUE AND CONTINUING INTO THUR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME TO
REFLECT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD PRECIP TREND DURING THAT PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THAT SCENARIO MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE UPSHOT IS THAT
MOISTURE AND FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE DAILY CYCLE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF
THIS WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY TRENDING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SE AZ INTO MONDAY. CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 6-8K FT AGL WITH
LOWER CEILINGS VICINITY TSRA. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1SM AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON