Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 210147
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
647 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

AZC009-210300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080721T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
647 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 640 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY 
RAIN...FROM NEAR MOUNT GRAHAM SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY 
LINE. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT WAS NOTED.

RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES AFFECTING 
STOCKTON WASH AND GILLESPIE WASH.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
WASHES...STREAMS AND ROADS.

LAT...LON 3272 10993 3273 10972 3246 10966 3245 10991

$$

MEYER

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 210302
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
802 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

AZC009-210308-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-080721T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAHAM AZ-
802 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY...

AT 755 PM MST...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY NEAR AND 
SOUTH OF MOUNT GRAHAM. HEAVY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE STOCKTON AND 
GILLESPIE WASHES OVERNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3272 10993 3273 10972 3246 10966 3245 10991

$$

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON
FLOW REGIME...WITH DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY HAD AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED IN SE COLORADO...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROF WAS NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND
AND MOVING SLOWLY WEST. ACTIVITY A BIT SLOWER TO GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE. AS OF 2
PM...RADAR DEPICTED ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER ERN PIMA...SANTA
CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE TRAINING OVER THE SAME SPOT. LATEST
MODEL RUNS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THUS INCREASING THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
SOPPING WET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 1.50 ALONG WITH SATURATED
SOILS. 18Z NAM PINPOINTING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE NEXT 6-10
HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN PIMA...FAR SE
PINAL...SW GRAHAM...NW COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN LIKE WE DID LAST NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...UPPER HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH VERY LIGHT
STEERING FLOW. THE INVERTED TROF NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST. MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER A BIT AS
SOME DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND EAST. FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN WILL BE A THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AS THE THE INVERTED
TROF MOVES THROUGH CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE A BIT WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WARM ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES
AREA WIDE. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE WHILE THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS STILL THERE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THIS WEEKEND.

WILL MAINTAIN STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD...WITH DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT REMNANT MOISTURE FROM NEWLY CHRISTENED ATLANTIC T.S. DOLLY WILL
MOVE INTO SE ARIZONA NEXT WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE 8-10KFT AGL RANGE. HOWEVER WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECT TO SEE CIGS/VSBYS DROP EASILY
TO WITHIN MVFR CONDITIONS WHEN CLOSE TO A THUNDERSTORM...AND
POSSIBLY TO IFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
607 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

AZZ029-030-032>035-211400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
607 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STORMS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT HIGH TODAY...BUT
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A
FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED SEVERE
WEATHER CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-211400-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
607 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING...SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STORMS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT HIGH TODAY...BUT
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A
FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED SEVERE
WEATHER CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-211400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
607 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK THIS MORNING...SO STORMS
WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THE STORMS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT HIGH
TODAY...BUT HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A
FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED SEVERE
WEATHER CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.