Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 111226
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
526 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

AZC019-021-111330-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080711T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
526 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM MST FOR
EASTERN PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 518 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN 
PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO AREA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST 
PINAL COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TO THE 
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

AT 400 AM MST...BROADCAST MEDIA AND THE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED A 
STRANDED MOTORIST IN THE CANADA DEL ORO WASH AT OVERTON. 

AT 518 AM MST...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.69 INCHES OF RAIN HAD 
FALLEN AT BEAR CANYON AND SNYDER ROAD. THUS SABINO CREEK IS EXPECTED 
TO RISE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. AND...THE ALAMO WASH AT GLENN 
STREET WAS RUNNING. THE UPPER TANQUE VERDE WASH WAS EXHIBITING A 
RAPID RISE AS WELL. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3235 11143 3284 11145 3318 11103 3297 11075
      3311 11066 3318 11046 3267 11046 3241 11047
      3223 11046 3195 11047 3197 11081 3202 11130

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT MONSOON
MOISTURE IN PLACE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
CURRENTLY WITH LATEST GPW IPW STATION READINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA INCLUDING TUCSON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WV IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY DECAYING MCS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH IS EXHIBITING A SLIGHT
WESTWARD DRIFT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM CLIFTON TO SASABE. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
PROPAGATE THROUGH.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH TODAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE IT WONT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO REALLY GET SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS WITH LIMITED BREAKS. THE
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN SOME SUNSHINE
TO RAMP UP CONVECTION BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND IF
WE REMAIN CLOUDY...THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIKE WHAT WE SAW
THURSDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TODAY ON THIS SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AGAIN WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A STEERING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECTING THE ABOVE AVERAGE MONSOON
PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST AS THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST
SHEARS OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS EXPECTING A RETURN TO A MORE
STANDARD MONSOON PATTERN FOR MID JULY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-7KFT AGL...
THOUGH LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH HEAVY RAIN AS
LOW AS 1 MILE WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM BAJA. THIS SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS AS WELL AS VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
328 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

AZZ019-029>035-120000-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
328 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...WILL ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING TODAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE RAIN FALLS...AND HOW MUCH SPACING THERE IS BETWEEN THE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS
A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND TAKE ACTION IF
ADVISORIES...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE STANDARD
MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.