Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SUN JAN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AND MERGE WITH A SYSTEM OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY FOR
A BRIEF DRYING TREND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...THIS ONE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...BUT WILL BE MUCH COLDER.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW THAT
IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STILL ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...BUT OVERALL IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY PHASE INTO/MERGE WITH SYSTEM
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS
AROUND A HALF AN INCH. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS...LIKE THE CATALINAS AND
RINCONS. STILL FORECASTING ANOTHER INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UP A
TO A HALF INCH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
STREAM GAGES THIS EVENING IN CASE SOME HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS NEED TO
BE ISSUED. SNOW LEVEL STILL ABOVE THE PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON SO ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIQUID. THAT WILL BE CHANGING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
IM EXPECTING THE SNOW LEVEL TO LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN FOCUS AREA THAT WILL GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE 7-11 IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 19...WHICH MESHES NICELY WITH BORDER AREAS OF
FLAGSTAFF AND ALBUQUERQUE WARNING AREAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SRN CA SYSTEM AND PAC NW SYSTEM WILL
PHASE/MERGE TONIGHT WITH THAT COMBINED SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY. THUS EXPECT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE A
COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW WITH LEVELS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY UP IN THE BERING SEA WITH THE TAIL END OF IT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND FROM TODAYS RAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH FOR LOW END
POPS AREA WIDE WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SUNDAY SYSTEM. HAVE THUS THROWN IN TOKEN POPS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD BASES AT 4-7K FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED LOWER CEILINGS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND OBSCURED MOUNTAINS
DURING PERIODS OF RAINFALL. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z MONDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH TO BKN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT
4-6K FT AGL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AFTER 16Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
  THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PUBLIC ZONE 19 ABOVE 7000
  FEET.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

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