Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE RED RIVER
WITH THE AID OF A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME BECOME SEVERE AS
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
ELEVATED LI VALUES WILL BE AROUND -4 AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKEN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROF EMERGES EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW
BECOMES CLOSED OFF OVER KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT THE MID-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS LEAVING AN ELONGATED TROF
FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE AID OF AN 80 KNOT 300 MB JET. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  67  83  68 /  30  10  10  60
FSM   77  59  84  64 /  40  10  10  30
MLC   86  65  86  67 /  20  10  10  40
BVO   83  63  84  63 /  30  10  10  60
FYV   76  58  79  61 /  30  10  10  30
BYV   77  59  81  60 /  40  10  10  30
MKO   82  62  84  66 /  40  10  10  40
MIO   81  63  85  65 /  40  10  10  40
F10   84  65  83  67 /  30  10  10  50
HHW   86  63  85  67 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
155 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
155 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 230 AM.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE STRONGER
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...
PRIMARILY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY... INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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