Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR A KSWO-KMKO-KFSM LINE. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLES
ACROSS THE REGION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  89  71  87 /  40  30  20  30
FSM   71  91  70  90 /  50  20  20  30
MLC   72  90  70  87 /  50  40  20  30
BVO   66  88  65  87 /  30  20  20  30
FYV   65  87  62  85 /  30  20  20  30
BYV   64  86  63  83 /  30  20  20  30
MKO   68  89  69  85 /  40  30  20  30
MIO   67  90  67  84 /  30  20  20  30
F10   70  88  70  84 /  50  40  20  30
HHW   74  91  72  95 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1247 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED TO THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
LOW...ALTHOUGH BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...COMBINED WITH THE
VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS.

MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH BY THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY WILL
YIELD A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT TRANSVERSE THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
200 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

OKZ065-066-071-072000-
MCINTOSH OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
200 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OKFUSKEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

AT 200 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WILSON TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HOFFMAN...MOVING EAST
AT 13 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WILSON...HENRYETTA...DEWAR...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...
SCHULTER...CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...ONAPA...PIERCE...HITCHITA AND COUNCIL
HILL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3555 9621 3561 9571 3556 9570 3556 9562
      3540 9534 3539 9534 3533 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 262DEG 11KT 3551 9601 3540 9580

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
239 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

OKZ060-064-066-072015-
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-
239 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE...EASTERN CREEK AND SOUTHERN TULSA

AT 239 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
EAST OF SLICK...MOVING EAST AT 8 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY...BEGGS...HECTORVILLE...
SLICK AND MOUNDS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3591 9591 3573 9593 3574 9631 3587 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 267DEG 7KT 3580 9618

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

OKZ070-071-074-072100-
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
305 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH AND WESTERN HASKELL

AT 305 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ONAPA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...ONAPA...BRIARTOWN
AND PORUM.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3550 9553 3537 9517 3520 9526 3526 9545
      3531 9545 3531 9550 3529 9552 3533 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 300DEG 15KT 3537 9547