Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
LOCATIONS BUT WILL PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE HEAT WILL LAST AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.  TOMORROW MAY A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY BUT THE HEADLINES IN PLACE ARE MERITED.

AFTER THAT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
WEST.  LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
TOMORROW.  IN ADDTION...THE MUCH ADVERTISED FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  THIS
SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

FROM THIS WEEKEND ON THE FORECAST IS IN DOUBT.  THE 06Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THEIR LATER RUNS.  THE EARLIER RUNS
KEPT THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND FRONT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH
MONDAY.  THE NEW RUNS HAVE SOUTH WINDS RETURNING AROUND SUNDAY.
HAVE HEDGED IN MY FORECAST.  I RAISED TEMPERATURES SOME SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHILE COOLING THEM SOME WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCE
FRIDAY.  I ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY IN CASE THE MODELS FLIP FLOP AGAIN.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ060-OKZ073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ020.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA..EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. .
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS THAT WILL
	REMAIN WARMEST OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING TULSA...MCALESTER...
	FORT SMITH AND VAN BUREN.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREADINDEX=37.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM 105 TO 112 DEGREES...WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 70S.  THESE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THE HEAT STRESS AND HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.  THE APPROPRIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE EXERCISED.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY HOWEVER
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEREAFTER...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

OKZ049-073-042245-
PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
508 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 508 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLANCO...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BLANCO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3455 9568 3459 9568 3459 9579 3460 9585
      3480 9576 3471 9551 3469 9551 3468 9547
      3452 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 109DEG 7KT 3464 9561

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

OKZ073-042315-
PITTSBURG OK-
545 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL PITTSBURG

AT 545 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROWDER TO 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF BLANCO TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLANCO...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...MCALESTER...KIOWA...PITTSBURG...BLANCO...SAVANNA...BACHE...
ALDERSON...KREBS AND CROWDER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3459 9587 3468 9589 3468 9590 3485 9594
      3516 9596 3515 9593 3516 9589 3516 9561
      3478 9562 3459 9556 3458 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 105DEG 9KT 3509 9572 3481 9572
          3460 9568

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

OKZ073-050000-
PITTSBURG OK-
614 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 614 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SCIPIO TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KIOWA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...KIOWA...ASHLAND...SAVANNA...
HAYWOOD...ARPELAR AND SCIPIO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3505 9609 3506 9607 3509 9607 3513 9601
      3515 9601 3516 9600 3514 9592 3504 9578
      3468 9588 3468 9602 3472 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 131DEG 15KT 3500 9585 3470 9595

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