Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
IS NOT AS HIGH COMPARED TO FURTHER SOUTHWEST...MUCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH 30 KNOTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MID MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASES.

TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN MCS
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND EXPECT THIS WILL
CONTINUE. WITH THAT SAID ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON POPS
COMPARED TO MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP.

IN THE EXTENDED STAYED CLOSE TO THE MEX AS ECMWF SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. UPPER HIGH TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
THIS MAY GIVE REGION A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  66  86  64 /  20  10  20  20
FSM   87  67  85  64 /  60  10  10  10
MLC   89  65  85  62 /  30   0  10  10
BVO   86  62  86  61 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   82  59  81  58 /  40  10  10  10
BYV   82  62  81  59 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   86  65  84  63 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   86  62  86  61 /  20  10  10  20
F10   88  65  84  62 /  20  10  20  20
HHW   90  66  87  62 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAVE
RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HELP CONTINUE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONLY
A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

OKZ075-076-201445-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
851 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN LE FLORE AND EASTERN LATIMER

AT 851 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BENGAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENGAL...MUSE...
WHITESBORO...HODGEN...SUMMERFIELD...HEAVENER AND FANSHAWE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3466 9494 3469 9494 3469 9497 3485 9515
      3499 9501 3489 9451 3454 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 312DEG 18KT 3486 9499

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

OKZ074-075-201530-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
1003 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN HASKELL AND LATIMER

AT 1003 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF KINTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 36 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KINTA...WILBURTON...
DAMON...PANOLA AND RED OAK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3503 9542 3504 9541 3504 9535 3508 9535
      3517 9519 3491 9499 3489 9500 3486 9503
      3487 9505 3485 9505 3469 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 334DEG 32KT 3500 9526