Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NE KANSAS INTO NW OKLAHOMA AND IS IN NO
HURRY TO PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING. THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH. DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH SUPPORT TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTH AND PRESSURE RISES HAVE
BEEN CONCENTRATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THUS IT APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE A MODEST PUSH INTO NE OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT. OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OR TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS AS 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT
AS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS OFF THE BROAD
WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF
AN ISSUE THAN SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME AS FORECAST
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

ONCE THIS WAVE OF PRECIP PASSES THROUGH BY THU AFTERNOON...VERY
WARM TEMPS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST AND PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AND
DRY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
CHILLY MORNING LOWS POSSIBLE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
GFS STILL INSISTS ON CUTTING OFF A LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
AND KEEPS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHILE ECMWF FAVORS A DRY BUT COOL PATTERN WITH NW FLOW
INDUCED BY DEEP LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE WITH THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY FORECAST DRY AND COOLER
THAN MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  61  78  65 /  20  20  50  80
FSM   83  63  81  63 /  30  20  50  80
MLC   81  64  80  64 /  30  20  50  80
BVO   78  59  78  64 /  20  20  50  70
FYV   79  58  78  62 /  30  20  50  80
BYV   79  58  78  61 /  30  20  40  70
MKO   81  62  79  64 /  30  20  50  80
MIO   79  58  79  63 /  30  20  50  70
F10   81  63  78  64 /  20  20  50  80
HHW   83  66  81  65 /  30  30  50  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-222215-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL PREVENT STORM ORGANIZATION. THE HIGH
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY POSE A BRIEF LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL POSE BOTH A SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MONITOR THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

OKZ057-058-221230-
CRAIG OK-OTTAWA OK-
651 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG AND NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA

AT 651 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTH OF HOLLOW...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...
BLUEJACKET AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3675 9500 3685 9540 3701 9540 3701 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 284DEG 19KT 3698 9524

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