Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
234 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER IS IN THE PROCESS OF DETERIORATING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPANDING NORTH EASTWARD ONTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENTLY... 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST... THE WARM FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIE GENERALLY WEST TO EAST... JUST SOUTH OF THE I
40 CORRIDOR. WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA...
WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFTING INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROGRESSES. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHERE STORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED... THE THREAT WILL
INCLUDE TORNADOES. ALL STORMS AREAWIDE WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES AND EVOLVES OVERNIGHT... HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH FLOODING LIKELY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE AREA WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED
AND MANY CATCH BASINS NEAR FULL... SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW...
RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A RIDGING
PATTERN... WHICH WILL FINALLY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK... WITH THE
GFS DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH... WHILE THE DGEX AND ECMWF BOTH
MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  73  45  61 / 100  60  20  10
FSM   61  76  47  62 / 100  80  20  10
MLC   63  74  46  64 / 100  40  10   0
BVO   56  72  42  60 / 100  60  20  10
FYV   60  71  44  57 / 100  80  20  10
BYV   57  71  45  57 / 100  90  20  10
MKO   61  75  44  60 / 100  60  10  10
MIO   57  72  42  56 / 100  70  20  10
F10   60  71  44  61 / 100  50  10  10
HHW   65  78  52  68 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
109 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....BEST IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BUT ALL OF
                EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM MIDLAND TEXAS
TO DALLAS TO IDABEL AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.  MEANWHILE...A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH WAS ROUNDING THE BEND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND HEADED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO OKLAHOMA BY MORNING CAUSING THE WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTH.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY AFFECT PARTS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL POSE ONLY A MINIMAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER.  STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL FORM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED... SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. THUS...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE LIKELY.

SPOTTER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS TOMORROW WITH THE SURFACE
LOW HEADING NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA.  A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE DRY LINE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION. $$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

OKZ065-092215-
OKFUSKEE OK-
426 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 425 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...
BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...
OKFUSKEE AND WELTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3556 9618 3555 9614 3544 9609 3527 9632
      3530 9645 3545 9646 3541 9653 3538 9654
      3540 9664 3564 9660 3565 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 211DEG 46KT 3521 9662