Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY NOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOW SOME ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND ADJUSTED WINDS
SOME BASED ON CURRENT FRONTAL TRENDS. TRENDED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AFTER 06Z AS THE CHANCES FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
COLDER AIR CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST WILL BE LEFT AS
IS. CURRENT WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM... SO ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE
REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
809 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
   ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
	                        ARKANSAS.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
	                        ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF ARKANSAS AND STRETCHED SOUTHWEST  THROUGH THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF PITTSBURG COUNTY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE HAVE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING  LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTER AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 11 PM.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITIES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A HAIL THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER
ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS IT STALLS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.

ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

OKZ073-280215-
PITTSBURG OK-
851 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN PITTSBURG

AT 851 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ASHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KIOWA...PITTSBURG...
BLANCO...ASHLAND AND SAVANNA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3468 9610 3488 9608 3487 9569 3465 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 274DEG 25KT 3479 9607

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             5 SSE GROVE             36.53N 94.73W
03/27/2008  E1.25 INCH       DELAWARE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL SSE OF GROVE

&&

MEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             HOWE                    34.95N 94.64W
03/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

1040 PM     HAIL             WISTER                  34.97N 94.72W
03/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1050 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             POTEAU                  35.05N 94.62W
03/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

1049 PM     HAIL             POTEAU                  35.05N 94.62W
03/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1058 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             7 SE POTEAU             34.98N 94.54W
03/27/2008  E0.88 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU IN THE CITY
            OF MONROE

&&

DMJ

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