Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY
LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING AGAIN THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER SW OKLAHOMA WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STORMS
INITIATING AHEAD OF IT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DECENT SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THOUGH MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT OVERDONE BY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGHEST. THE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH STORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO TRAVEL NEAR THE RED RIVER ON FRIDAY AS PER MOST OF
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS /EVEN THE WRF HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH/. STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB WARM FRONTS
OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN
BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. FURTHER SOUTH...THE CAP WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...MAKING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

SUNDAY WILL BE NICE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL DIG INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET UP A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RIVER AND FLASH
FLOODING. PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
THE SYSTEM...BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. HAVE UPPED POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT. A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY TREND EVEN HIGHER IN
LATER FORECASTS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  69  46  55 /  30  20  60  10
FSM   50  74  49  63 /  80  20  60  10
MLC   49  75  49  61 /  30  20  40   0
BVO   41  69  42  53 /  30  20  70  10
FYV   46  69  44  54 /  80  20  70  20
BYV   45  66  43  53 /  80  20  80  30
MKO   47  69  46  55 /  60  20  50  10
MIO   42  66  43  50 /  60  20  80  30
F10   47  71  45  57 /  30  20  40  10
HHW   49  78  53  66 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
513 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
   ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA EXCEPT PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE HAIL.

ALSO...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND
A LIMITED TORNADO RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...PRIMARILY
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE INCREASES THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE FRIDAY.  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.  WHILE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS POSSIBLE...THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY TREND MORE TOWARD THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE LATEST DATA
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

ARZ020-132300-
FRANKLIN AR-
526 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 526 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHARLESTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALIX...OZARK...CHARLESTON...
BRANCH...PETER PENDER...VESTA...MEG...DENNING...CECIL...ALTUS AND
WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3560 9368 3539 9369 3537 9371 3538 9378
      3531 9379 3529 9383 3530 9389 3526 9390
      3521 9406 3537 9408 3562 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 237DEG 34KT 3531 9403

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             RUDY                    35.53N 94.27W
03/13/2008  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL OFF HWY 348 IN RUDY

0515 PM     HAIL             MULBERRY                35.50N 94.05W
03/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL

0520 PM     HAIL             MULBERRY                35.50N 94.05W
03/13/2008  E1.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     HAIL             JETHRO                  35.61N 93.89W
03/13/2008  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DMJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             JETHRO                  35.61N 93.89W
03/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0547 PM     HAIL             3 S WATALULA            35.53N 93.83W
03/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AT I-40 EAST BOUND REST STOP
            BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 37.

0554 PM     HAIL             ALTUS                   35.45N 93.76W
03/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT ALTUS AND US HIGHWAY 64

&&

DMJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

OKZ064-140045-
CREEK OK-
705 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CREEK

AT 705 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTH OF BRISTOW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...BRISTOW...MOUNDS...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3607 9602 3590 9602 3590 9604 3587 9605
      3586 9618 3584 9619 3579 9646 3603 9653
      3609 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 252DEG 23KT 3592 9635

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

ARZ011-140045-
MADISON AR-
708 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON

AT 708 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WESLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PETTIGREW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
GEORGETOWN...HARMONY...RED STAR...WEATHERS...HUNTSVILLE...
PETTIGREW...AURORA... WESLEY...KINGSTON... HINDSVILLE...
FORUM...BOSTON...WITTER...JAPTON...MARBLE...ALABAM...CLIFTY AND
ROCKHOUSE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3616 9358 3615 9354 3602 9344 3588 9350
      3577 9352 3578 9363 3602 9393 3609 9394
      3631 9383 3630 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 223DEG 20KT 3606 9388

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
721 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

OKZ060-061-140100-
ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-
721 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN ROGERS AND TULSA

AT 721 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF OWASSO TO TULSA...MOVING EAST AT
5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...TULSA...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS AND OWASSO.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3636 9562 3617 9573 3617 9599 3633 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 254DEG 6KT 3626 9580 3622 9589