Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
904 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...
DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS STILL IN IT. ALSO
DROPPED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS THE BULK OF THE LIGHTNING
IS WELL TO OUR EAST.

POTENT UPPER LOW IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST  OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING WITH
ADDTIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL EXTEND
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
STILL COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING IN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.  THUS...WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (LOCALLY HEAVY)...ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS EARLY
SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 20Z DEPICTS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NERN
TX...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO S TX AND INVERTED SFC TROF
LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 1-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS EXPECTED...A LARGE SHIELD
OF RAINFALL (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
CONFINED TO SE OK...WITH LOCALLY MESONET REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS FAR WRN TX...AND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT OUT TONIGHT ACROSS OK. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN AND
SCNTRL OK...AND WE/LL EVENTUALLY SEE THIS ACTIVITY MOVE INTO SERN OK
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW LARGE
HAIL PRODUCERS.

AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION E LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SERN KS. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE EXITING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NW OF TULSA. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST LOCATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE OVER WRN
PARTS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.

DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TOWARD CHICAGO (DON/T ALL LOWS
GO TO CHICAGO?)...WITH BREEZY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT WILL LET EVENING/MID CREW MAKE THE FINAL DECISION ON THE
NEED OF A WIND ADVISORY.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON MONDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY MID-WEEK...AND
ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY PROGGD INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
CURRENT 20-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  26  44 / 100  70  10   0
FSM   43  45  29  45 /  90  20  10   0
MLC   39  47  28  50 /  70  30  10   0
BVO   33  40  26  44 / 100  80  10   0
FYV   39  41  24  41 /  80  30  10   0
BYV   36  41  24  38 /  80  40  10   0
MKO   36  45  28  46 /  90  30  10   0
MIO   38  40  26  40 / 100  70  10   0
F10   36  45  27  49 /  90  30  10   0
HHW   43  52  32  52 /  70  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR
     OKZ054-OKZ059.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ069-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...17

ABBAS

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