Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE HAS BEEN SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR KFDR TO
KOKC AND ALONG I-44 TO NEAR KSGF THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT. INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM TEXAS. LI VALUES COMPUTED FROM 850 MB ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE WITH CAPE VALUES
COMPUTED FROM 850 MB AROUND 1000 J/KG. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR FIRE UP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...INSTABILITIES
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. WITH IMPRESSIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THESE
SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF
AROUND 70 MPH.THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE
MAIN MID-LEVEL LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSITION OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS COLD AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ARCTIC BLAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  26  42  28 /  90  20  10   0
FSM   69  33  44  29 / 100  40  10   0
MLC   69  32  44  30 /  80  20  10  10
BVO   39  24  40  22 /  90  30  10   0
FYV   65  28  37  24 / 100  50  10   0
BYV   65  30  37  26 / 100  50  10   0
MKO   66  29  43  27 /  90  20  10   0
MIO   48  26  36  25 / 100  40  10   0
F10   62  29  43  28 /  80  20  10   0
HHW   73  34  48  33 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

OKZ073>075-051215-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
538 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 538 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MCALESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...
ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...MCALESTER...SAVANNA...DOW...BACHE...
ALDERSON...KREBS...ARPELAR...BLOCKER...FEATHERSTON...CROWDER...
QUINTON...INDIANOLA AND CANADIAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3495 9601 3516 9581 3525 9558 3524 9556
      3527 9553 3532 9543 3520 9502 3476 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1138Z 234DEG 53KT 3495 9572

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

OKZ070>074-051300-
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
613 AM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN HASKELL AND NORTHEASTERN
     PITTSBURG

AT 613 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
WEST OF ENTERPRISE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...
TAMAHA...MC KEY...VIAN...GORE...BOX...EUFAULA...FEATHERSTON...
CANADIAN...BRIARTOWN...PORUM...WARNER...BRAGGS AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3569 9512 3565 9512 3565 9505 3548 9479
      3507 9548 3519 9569 3575 9522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1213Z 223DEG 42KT 3522 9546