Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CALENDAR SAYS JANUARY 7...WOULDN/T KNOW IT BY LOOKING OUTSIDE.
VERY SPRINGLIKE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN IMPRESSIVE-FOR-JANUARY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE STORMS UNDERWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. POTENT UPPER SYSTEM NOW NEAR FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER
THIS EVENING AS AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM OK PANHANDLE THROUGH
CENTRAL KS WITH NO DISCERNIBLE PRESSURE RISE BEHIND IT. SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY WILL KEEP IT NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY. DEEPENING SFC
LOW TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO BACK A LITTLE AND PUSH
HIGH SFC DEW POINTS BACK TO THE WEST...PERHAPS AS FAR AS I-35
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. 18Z WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POCKET
OF SFC BASED LI NEAR INTERSECTION OF FRONT AND DRY LINE BY AROUND
06Z...AND SLIDES THIS FEATURE NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
BIT OMINOUS LOOKING CONSIDERING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST BY
THAT TIME

TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW TEMP
FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE IS TO BRING FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR I-44 BY 15Z TUESDAY.
THUS AREAS TO THE NORTH COULD SE A RAPID DROP FROM 12-14Z...AND AS
SUCH WILL GO A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE THERE...AND KEEP LOWS
VERY WARM AGAIN TO THE SOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALSO MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY OR
FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH BROAD CYCLONIC LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPS BY WED MORNING...AT LEAST BY COMPARISON.

NEXT SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BUT WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL CONFINE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE THURSDAY PERIOD. TEMPS MID WEEK WILL STAY
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...THEN A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERWAY BY THE WEEKEND AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS...WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND AS WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  52  30  56 /  70  10   0  10
FSM   61  62  30  57 /  90  30   0  10
MLC   57  58  31  57 /  70  10   0  10
BVO   44  49  25  55 /  70  20   0  10
FYV   58  59  26  53 /  90  30   0  10
BYV   58  60  27  54 / 100  60   0  10
MKO   56  57  28  56 /  80  10   0  10
MIO   49  51  29  56 /  80  20   0  10
F10   54  55  29  56 /  60  10   0  10
HHW   61  62  33  59 /  70  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...6 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
        ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...4 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
        NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY 4 PM...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA CURRENTLY ACROSS
FAR WEST TEXAS OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR.  STORMS WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND
GAIN STRENGTH AS THEY INTERACT WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.  WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND LINE SEGMENTS...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING STORMS AND THE MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SPECIAL ATTENTION SHOULD BE PLACED
ON ANY STORM WHICH IS ABLE TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD...AS
SUCH MOTION WILL BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAST TO TRACK INDIVIDUALLY...
THEREFORE CONSTRUCT YOUR SPOTTER PLACEMENT ACCORDINGLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY IN
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH BEING COMMON.  A MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

OKZ063-072215-
DELAWARE OK-
344 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN DELAWARE

AT 344 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTH OF TWIN OAKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...TWIN OAKS AND KANSAS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3642 9460 3641 9461 3639 9459 3637 9459
      3617 9483 3630 9499 3654 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 225DEG 37KT 3630 9483