Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THIS IS NOT THE MOST STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST...BUT NOT ALL THAT
UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. STRONG ZONAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE
WITH AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...AND HARD TO FIND A PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE AT
LEAST SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HEAVILY DEPENDANT ON
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH.

CURRENTLY TEMPS ARE SOARING INTO THE MID 80S ALONG I-44 CORRIDOR
AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE
MID-UPPER 40S THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SURGING SOUTH THIS EVENING AND WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS WELL CAPPED TO THE SOUTH...WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT PRIMARILY AFTER SUNSET.
MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR AND MU CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG LEAD TO
SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE OVER FAR NE OKLAHOMA THROUGH MUCH OF NW
ARKANSAS TONIGHT...HAIL THE BIG THREAT.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED
SOUTH BEFORE THIS FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
POPS WILL BE KEPT GOING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS ZONAL FLOW KEEPS NOCTURNAL LLJ IN PLAY.
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH APPEARS TO BE SAT
NIGHT AND THIS CORRESPONDS WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS. OVERALL POP
FORECAST SIDES MORE WITH THE MAV AS OPPOSED TO THE WETTER MET.
SOME AREAS WILL SEE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

FRONT SHOULD DROP BACK SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FAVORING MONDAY AS THE WET DAY.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS FORECAST PRECIP
H2O VALUES ARE OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THEN AND UPPER FLOW GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS AND
TRENDED QPF FORECAST HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS...STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO
PIN DOWN WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD OCCUR.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH SOME SIGNAL AT LEAST OF A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING WED OR THU WITH FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH. DID NOT
DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 00Z MEX GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIP BOTH WED AND THU. 12Z ECMWF LOOKS MUCH WETTER DURING
THIS TIME HOWEVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  58  41  63 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   53  62  44  61 /  60  20  40  30
MLC   49  60  46  64 /  30  10  30  20
BVO   41  57  40  62 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   43  55  38  58 /  70  20  30  30
BYV   41  52  38  54 /  70  20  30  30
MKO   46  60  43  63 /  60  10  30  20
MIO   40  55  38  56 /  50  10  10  20
F10   46  60  42  64 /  30  10  20  20
HHW   60  63  49  68 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

OKZ066-272245-
OKMULGEE OK-
517 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OKMULGEE

AT 517 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST OKMULGEE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS NEAR BEGGS.  SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKMULGEE...PRESTON...BEGGS AND
BALD HILL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3580 9575 3574 9577 3573 9574 3563 9571
      3560 9618 3580 9618 3586 9581 3585 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 260DEG 28KT 3572 9608