Severe Thunderstorm Warning 510, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO INTENSE THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS
SEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH
HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...AS WELL AS TO KEEP
THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT PRESENT...WINDS
HAVE VEERED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY WEST OF AN ALVA TO
FREDERICK LINE...WITH A SHARPER DRY LINE TRAILING THAT...IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT LINE FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WITH THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF
30 KTS PROGGED...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LONG AS THE
STORMS REMAIN ISOLATED. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRY LINE...AND STORMS TRANSITION TO A MORE
LINEAR FORM. WITH STORM MOTIONS BEING QUITE RAPID...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS ONCE THE STORMS LINE
OUT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WERE
RESULTING IN 40 TO 45 MPH WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
STORMS SHOULD EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING WITH A SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...AS IT HAS HAD THE MOST CONSISTENCY OVER THE
LAST FEW RUNS. FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  65  41  61 /  90  10  10   0
FSM   59  68  40  67 /  90  30  10   0
MLC   55  68  39  68 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   53  63  37  62 / 100  10  10   0
FYV   57  63  36  56 /  90  40  10  10
BYV   57  63  38  56 /  80  50  10  10
MKO   53  66  39  63 /  90  10  10   0
MIO   54  62  38  58 /  90  10  10  10
F10   52  66  40  64 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   62  70  43  72 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 8 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A DRY LINE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT 5 PM WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND A LOW
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             11 W BURBANK            36.69N 96.93W
11/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY THE KAW LAKE COE

&&

JDS