Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 487, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 12, 2008Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2008, 9:28 PM CDT for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2008, 9:28 PM CDT (02:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2008, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 12, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 513 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 765 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 203 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 4.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 130227
SVRTSA
ARC087-130300-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0487.080713T0228Z-080713T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
928 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 926 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KINGSTON TO
  WITTER...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BOSTON.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3597 9344 3595 9348 3587 9351 3583 9351
      3581 9350 3581 9351 3587 9376 3612 9354
      3612 9346 3609 9346 3608 9343 3601 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 280DEG 20KT 3607 9349 3590 9365

$$

1 follow-up statement

557 
WWUS54 KTSA 130258
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

ARC087-130308-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0487.000000T0000Z-080713T0300Z/
MADISON AR-
958 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MADISON COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 1000 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE 
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS 
MUCH OF MADISON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3597 9344 3595 9348 3587 9351 3583 9351
      3581 9350 3581 9351 3587 9376 3612 9354
      3612 9346 3609 9346 3608 9343 3601 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 280DEG 20KT 3604 9329 3587 9345

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 6:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 6:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR KTUL TO JUST NORTH OF KFYV AT 23Z
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESES STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ALONG FRONT
AFTER 00Z AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. ADDITIONAL MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY TUL/RVS
AND FYV/XNA TAF SITES AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORE UNCERTAIN...THEREFORE WILL ONLY
CARRY PROB30 AT FSM/MLC 09-12Z AND VCTS THEREAFTER. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH..EXPANDED EAST INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FOR TONIGHT. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROGESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT A CAP
FAILURE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  INITIAL STORMS WILL
PRESENT A SEVERE POTENTIAL HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 2.0 AND NEAR 2.25 FOR
A FEW LOCATIONS...ANTICIPATE FAIRLY RAPID LARGE
MCS DEVELOPMENT. AREAS NORTHWEST OF KCQB - KFYV
SEEM MOST VULNERABLE..WHERE ABRFC GRIDDED FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWEST..AND CONVECTION THREAT
HIGHEST. H7 DEW POINT TROPICAL. RAIN PRODUCTION
SHOULD NEAR MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY.

EXACTLY WHERE THE NORTH EDGE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AT DAWN SUNDAY IS IN QUESTION. GFS SPEED TOO
QUICK SO RAISED POPS SOUTH I40. A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD PUSH FRONT  FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE
WASHING OUT.. TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  H500 TURNING MORE SUMMER-LIKE
WITH MOST ACTION WELL NORTH FOR REST OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  86  64  90 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   72  87  64  91 /  50  40  10   0
MLC   72  86  65  91 /  40  30  10   0
BVO   63  86  56  90 /  90  10   0   0
FYV   65  83  56  86 /  80  30   0   0
BYV   64  82  58  84 /  80  20   0   0
MKO   67  84  64  90 /  70  30  10   0
MIO   64  86  59  87 / 100  10   0   0
F10   67  84  64  90 /  60  30  10   0
HHW   74  88  66  90 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 4:55 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUG THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS
BECOME UNSTABLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TRANSITION MORE TOWARDS A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT. A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...MAKING HEAVY RAINFALL A
CONCERN WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE
SOILS ARE VERY MOIST FROM RECENT RAINS. THE GREATEST RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE NORTH OF A BRISTOW...WAGONER...WITTER LINE. REFER
TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATSA/ FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT
TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 8:12 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N OAKS                36.19N 94.85W
07/12/2008                   DELAWARE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE COVERING ROAD 2 MILES NORTH OF OAKS

&&

DMJ

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 8:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

ARZ002-010-011-130215-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND MADISON

AT 813 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CABANAL TO WHEELER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 915 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3613 9331 3611 9346 3580 9351 3578 9416
      3614 9440 3635 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 282DEG 25KT 3629 9350 3613 9422

Local storm report, Jul 12, 8:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W CAVE SPRINGS        36.26N 94.25W
07/12/2008                   BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE TOOK OUT A POWER LINE AND FELL
            ONTO HIGHWAY 264 1.5 MILES WEST OF CAVE SPRINGS.

&&

DMJ

Local storm report, Jul 12, 8:29 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
829 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W FAYETTEVILLE          36.06N 94.16W
07/12/2008                   WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF FAYETTEVILLE

&&

DMJ

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 9:01 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

OKZ064-130300-
CREEK OK-
901 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CREEK

AT 901 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
WEST OF DRUMRIGHT...MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON...
SILVER CITY AND KELLYVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3612 9661 3609 9630 3608 9629 3609 9622
      3608 9616 3586 9618 3582 9618 3591 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 278DEG 25KT 3602 9672

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 9:10 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

OKZ064>066-130245-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
910 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OKFUSKEE

AT 910 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SLICK TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHAROAH...MOVING
EAST AT 29 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...WILSON...PHAROAH...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA...
DEWAR...GRAYSON...SCHULTER...MORRIS...PRESTON...BEGGS...BALD HILL...
HECTORVILLE AND SLICK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3586 9632 3586 9603 3586 9581 3547 9585
      3547 9587 3539 9588 3540 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 269DEG 25KT 3577 9620 3547 9617

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 7:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	36 min
Jul 12, 7:54 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	2 hr
Jul 12, 8:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison, Washington	62 min
Jul 12, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	67 min
Jul 12, 8:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	59 min
Jul 12, 10:52 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	113 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.